Examining Jaylon Johnson's Contract Situation After Bears Release Eddie Jackson, Cody Whitehair

Johnson, whose career exploded in 2023, looks to cash in after the Bears elected to retain him at the trade deadline amid rumors of his pending departure because of a lack of a new deal. The two sides have made amends and are now open to rekindling talks of a long-term contract. With the Bears clearing out some space in the garage, what would a Johnson deal likely look like?

Franchise Tag

First and foremost, the Bears could slap Johnson with the dreaded franchise tag. Players hate it for a multitude of reasons, but in Johnson's case, it could be warranted. Despite his strong season that cemented his status as a legitimate shutdown cornerback, Johnson has failed to complete a season unscathed. He has missed multiple games in each of his first four seasons due to injuries, and in three of those seasons has missed at least three contests.

As former Philadelphia Eagles safety Brian Dawkins said, "Availability is the best ability." Johnson is undoubtedly a cornerstone on the Bears' defense, but his injury history, which has followed him since his Utah days, makes the waters of signing him to a long-term deal a little more murky for a player of his caliber.

Furthermore, going into 2023, Johnson had recorded only one interception in his previous three seasons. There's a possibility that Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus want to see Johnson replicate his 2023 production in 2024 before awarding him with a hefty deal and guaranteeing a player they didn't initially draft a contract that likely will reset the cornerback market.

Dollars and Cents

Though the franchise tag remains a likely (and the likeliest) possibility, it's fair to say that everyone from the fans to the front office wants to stamp a new deal with Jaylon Johnson and secure him as a Bear long-term.

During the season, I penned an article predicting Johnson's value would be in the neighborhood of Trevon Diggs, who had signed a five-year, $97 million deal ($42.3 million guaranteed) with the Dallas Cowboys before last offseason. The deal's guarantees ended after year two (2024), making it an incredibly team-friendly deal for a player drafted one spot after Johnson in the 2020 draft.

You can throw that idea into the trash. Johnson will want to reset the market, and with the tape he put out in 2023, he's earned a rich payday.

The highest-paid cornerback in the NFL is Green Bay's Jaire Alexander. In May of 2022, Alexander inked a four-year deal worth $84 million that guaranteed him $30 million at signing. So while he's technically making the most on an average annual basis, his guarantees are lower than players such as Denzel Ward ($71.25 million), Jalen Ramsey ($71.20 million), Marshon Lattimore ($68.346 million), and Marlon Humphrey ($66.957 million).

In fact, Ward's contract will likely be the template from which Johnson's team works going forward. Ward inked his five-year, $100.5 million deal with the Cleveland Browns on April 18, 2022, when he was 24 years old (the same age Johnson is now). He received $71.25 million in guarantees, $44.5 million of which was fully guaranteed at signing.

Predicting the Deal

With Jaylon Johnson not mincing words about his desire to reset the market and his play backing up this sentiment, there's a scenario where he and the Bears can find a middle ground and both can come away feeling like they've won.

The Bears can afford to give Johnson a record-setting deal — one that's a five-year pact worth $110 million but lower on guarantees (perhaps in the $50-$60 million range). This would make Johnson the highest-paid cornerback in the league on paper. However, the Bears can frontload the guarantees in a way that essentially makes it a two-year deal akin to what Tremaine Edmunds and Travon Diggs received. Diggs and Edmunds received eye-popping deals, but upon digging into the nuts and bolts of the numbers, they're frontloaded such that the guarantees expire after two years and make it so the team can move on if the player doesn't meet the teams' expectations.

Structuring the deal in such a way would ensure that the Bears lock up their star cornerback but give them the financial flexibility to avoid hamstringing themselves should Johnson continue to suffer through injuries each season. We know his floor as a player is high, but if the 2023 season was his ceiling, how sure are we that it's sustainable? A deal similar to the one outlined above would reward Johnson for his excellent development thus far, avoid bad blood with the franchise tag, and award one of the homegrown talents in the locker room.