Boom or bust? Why first-round picks will/won't succeed

BOOM: All the qualities that helped Burrow dominate college football en route to the Heisman Trophy and a National Championship – his accuracy, mobility, toughness, ability to handle pressure and propensity for playing his best in the biggest games – translate to the NFL. He hits the ground running in Cincinnati and turns the Bengals into a perennial contender, and brings plenty of playoff wins to a franchise that hasn’t had one since 1991.

BUST: A massively flawed roster, with major holes on the offensive line in particular, make Burrow’s transition to the NFL rough, and Cincinnati’s overall dysfunctional nature is too much to overcome. Burrow never finds steady footing with Cincinnati, and the Bengals spin their wheels in what figures to be a stout AFC North. 

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: Young lives up to the hype and uses his incredible blend of technical prowess and athleticism to produce at a dominant level straight off the bat. Joining an already-solid Redskins defensive front that will help ease his transition, Young picks up double-digit sacks yearly from the get-go.

BUST: Young produces at a consistently respectable level, but has a hard time translating his elite production to the NFL as he is unable to dominate physically as he did at Ohio State. It takes him a year or two to maximize his top-tier potential.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: Okudah's pro-ready athleticism, fluidity and instincts make him an instant-impact force on the outside as he blankets top targets on a weekly basis. The Lions are able to seamlessly replace Darius Slay, who was traded to the Eagles, and quickly improve a pass defense that ranked 29th in DVOA.

BUST: Okudah's transition takes longer than expected, and the Lions do not get enough immediate help to cover the loss of Slay. In hindsight, a trade down appears to have been a better option -- Okudah is plenty respectable but not the lock-down cover man who warrants the third overall selection.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: Daniel Jones takes a big leap forward thanks in part to the improved pass protection provided by Thomas, who was considered a top 2020 tackle prospect long before his peers. Thomas' power creates cutback lanes for Saquon Barkley, and his length makes him a counter to speedy edge rushers in his rookie season. He is a stalwart for years to come.

BUST: Thomas fails to improve his occasionally sloppy footwork and is eaten alive by quick rushers. While he eventually becomes a decent starter, the Giants do not get substantial supplementation for Jones out of Thomas.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: The big-picture thinking Miami front office believes Tagovailoa will become the QB the Dolphins have been seeking since Dan Marino’s retirement in 2000. Tagovailoa proves he was worth the Dolphins passing on the 2019 QB class and rewards them for not shying away from a talented passer with injury questions the way they did Drew Brees in 2006. Tagovailoa, Division I-FBS’ all-time yards-per-attempt leader (10.9), takes over a better Dolphins 2021 team and helps it take the AFC East reins post-Tom Brady.

BUST: The myriad injuries Tagovailoa encountered prove too much and deal the Dolphins a blow in their rebuilding process. The Dolphins are unable to assemble the kind of offensive line capable of protecting their prized investment. Not only does Tagovailoa’s injury history carry over to the NFL, he is unable to replicate his stratospheric Crimson Tide work without the immense talent advantages Alabama offers its quarterbacks. 

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: The Chargers not only have a quarterback capable of helping their talented roster compete for playoff real estate immediately but one who allows them to captivate the Los Angeles market. A four-year Oregon starter, Herbert benefits from the quality skill-position array the Bolts have in place and starts a lengthy run as Philip Rivers’ successor. The 6-foot-6 cannon-armed prospect overcomes doubts about his accuracy and makes the Chargers the Chiefs’ primary threat for the foreseeable future.

BUST: Scouts Inc.’s No. 24-rated prospect, Herbert is the classic quarterback reach -- by a team desperate to generate excitement in an L.A. market in which it probably does not belong. The Chargers’ issues at tackle impede Herbert’s development and expose the struggles he showed while facing pressure in college. The Herbert pick not only wastes a talented defense and skill corps but fails to move the needle with L.A. fans.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: The Panthers rejuvenate the league's worst defensive line and run defense with Brown, who instantly becomes one of the most destructive interior defensive linemen in football. As a rookie, Brown rushes the passer at a solid level while stuffing the run as well as anyone in the league. In time, he develops his rush repertoire and becomes a perennial Pro Bowler.

BUST: Brown gives the Panthers a space-eater on the inside, but he struggles to produce much as a pass-rusher. While his run defense is a welcomed boon, he never elevates his passing game value enough to warrant the seventh overall pick, especially over South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw, who goes on to become a more talented rusher.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: Technically a linebacker, Simmons lines up all over the field for the Cardinals. He adjusts quickly to the mental side of the game, so Arizona has an ideal weapon to counter 49ers tight end George Kittle, spy on Seattle QB Russell Wilson and patrol the middle of their defense – one that struggled massively against tight ends in 2019. 

BUST: Arizona fails to figure how to put Simmons in a position to thrive, or anchors him to one role. He struggles against physical, run-oriented offenses, and despite his coverage abilities, he still can’t totally slow the best tight ends in the league. His unique build (6-foot-4 and 238 pounds) results in more frequent injuries in the faster, stronger, more physical NFL, and he is unable to stay on the field; meanwhile, a tackle whom the Cardinals could have taken to protect Kyler Murray is thriving elsewhere.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: Henderson proves to be great in man-to-man coverage, and is a physical enough to match up against the best wide receivers in the league. When the Jaguars were within a quarter of a Super Bowl appearance in 2017, much of their success was built on elite cornerback play from Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Henderson is similarly precocious, so he shuts down a side of the field. He becomes a valuable weapon against Deshaun Watson and the Texans, in particular.

BUST: Henderson, who didn't have a fabulous 2019, doesn't become a great tackler, despite his overall athletic ability. He's bothered by a lingering ankle injury, leading to buyers’ remorse. He doesn't make an impact on an also-ran franchise desperate for a fresh start.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: Wills shows off a vast array of talents as a rookie. (He ran a 5.05 40-yard dash and posted a 34.5-inch vertical jump at the combine.) The vicious run-blocking and equally adept pass-blocking he demonstrated in college translates well to the NFL. He  does not have the high ceiling of Andrew Thomas or Mekhi Becton, but he has arguably the highest floor of any tackle prospect in a loaded class. Browns offensive line coach Bill Callahan is regarded as one of the best in the league, and under his tutelage, Wills easily flips to left tackle, where he uses his athleticism and fierce attitude to protect Baker Mayfield’s blind side for a decade to come.

BUST: Wills never turns into a truly great player, and is merely a serviceable, solid tackle. He is unable to move to the left side, leaving the Browns with an issue at the position. Cleveland remains dysfunctional, and Wills, even if he has a solid career, is a footnote in another lost era in northeast Ohio.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: The Jets’ high-ceiling pick provides the offensive line anchor they have lacked since D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s retirement and starts a turnaround for a long-woeful front. The 6-foot-7, 364-pound Becton becomes the centerpiece of GM Joe Douglas’ O-line overhaul, and the mammoth – yet stunningly athletic – Louisville product serves as a vital aid for Sam Darnold. 

BUST: Douglas and Co. regret passing on Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, a safer prospect, and see Becton unable to become the Bryant McKinnie- or Trent Brown-type starter the Jets hoped. The monstrous blocker's past conditioning and technique issues end up resurfacing, burning the Jets and leaving Darnold without a true impact blocker on the edge. This, in turn, forces the Jets to reinvest in the position and devote resources away from other positions that will need it in the future.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock going the Al Davis route pays off, giving the Raiders a difference-maker they lost when their ill-advised Antonio Brown gamble failed. Ruggs’ sub-4.3-second 40-yard dash speed – a trait this draft’s other top-end wideouts lacked – provides a weapon Derek Carr has lacked since the Raiders dealt Amari Cooper. Ruggs uses the deep speed and catch-and-run prowess to become the rare wide receiver to go from auxiliary weapon on his college team to the centerpiece of his NFL squad’s aerial attack.

BUST: A franchise that has chased deep-ball threats for years – hitting and missing – rues overlooking the more well-rounded receiver prospects in this draft. His skills notwithstanding, the 5-foot-11 Ruggs never eclipsed 750 yards in a college season and finished 400-plus yards behind both Jeudy and Devonta Smith at Alabama in 2019. That proves telling. Ruggs' fit with Carr (career 6.88 yards per attempt) also never fully materializes. 

BOOM: Looking to capitalize on Tom Brady's window, Tristan Wirfs benefits from joining an offensive line stacked with veterans and immediately slides in as a positive force for Bruce Arians. His athleticism and mobility creates holes at the second-level that rekindle a long-dormant run game, and he cleans up his minor pass-prorection deficiencies to become a long-term edge protector for not only Brady but his successor as well.

BUST: Wirfs' athleticism pops off the tape, but he struggles to provide quality protection during Brady's tenure. The Buccaneers see their offensive potential with Brady limited due to Wirfs' issues in protection.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: Kinlaw is a physical specimen. He is still somewhat raw, particularly for such a highly-drafted player, but that is a testament to his ceiling. Kinlaw has the potential to be an All-Pro, provided he harnesses his athletic gifts. San Francisco is a perfect fit, and a great place for him to develop. He’s long and explosive, and was very productive for the Gamecocks. If he reaches his potential, he will be a disruptive force, and one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL.

BUST: Kinlaw lacks polish. He is not the most instinctive player, and the finer points of his technique still need work. He’s tall (6-foot-6 and 310 pounds) but doesn’t always play with leverage. If he gets frustrated early, or his coaches can’t find a way to get the most out of his skill set, he could end up being a classic example of a truly special athlete who can’t translate those gifts on the football field. 

-- Chris Mueller 

BOOM: Strong passing attacks boast receivers with complementary skill sets, and the Broncos choosing Jeudy over the bigger CeeDee Lamb proves smart for a team that already features a tall boundary wideout in Courtland Sutton. The best of Alabama’s receivers during Tua Tagovailoa’s run, Jeudy uses his route-running savvy and supreme change-of-direction skills to give Drew Lock a weapon who consistently created space against SEC cornerbacks for two years. In Sutton and Jeudy, Denver forms a younger version of its acclaimed Demaryius Thomas-Emmanuel Sanders tandem.

BUST: The Broncos pay for not using this draft’s receiver depth to their advantage, and not maneuvering to land a tackle or a cornerback proves costly. While Jeudy represents strong value at No. 15, the Broncos let four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris walk and have not seen 2019 corner addition Bryce Callahan (foot) in a game since midway through his 2018 Bears season. The Broncos not striking first before the Buccaneers traded in front of them for Tristan Wirfs also leaves the fringe AFC contender vulnerable at tackle.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Terrell makes the most of his length and becomes a top-notch corner in any scheme that Atlanta runs over his career. His size (6-foot-1 and 195 pounds) makes him a neutralizer in an NFC South stacked with talent at wide receiver.

BUST: Terrell is unable to effectively fill out his slender frame and is bullied by bigger-bodied receivers. His issues as a tackler (23.4% miss rate in 2019) are not fixed and become a consistent detriment that limit his impact.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: The Cowboys reap the benefits of a shocking draft-day fall for years to come, as Lamb joins forces with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to form the best wide receiver trio in football. Lamb's open-field game proves to be the perfect complement to Cooper's physicality and route-running.

BUST: Lamb proves to be merely a product of Oklahoma's wide-open Big 12 offense, and does not show the route-running chops to make the most of his incredible YAC ability. He does not produce at high enough a level to warrant the Cowboys' decision to add another wide receiver – where they were already set – over an edge rusher or defensive back.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: The Dolphins snagged Jackson to block for Tua Tagovailoa, not Ryan Fitzpatrick. The franchise's rebuilding timeline likely does not have a 2020 playoff berth in the cards, so going with a super-athletic 20-year-old tackle who could learn for a period before debuting makes sense. While taking this route might not add up for a contending team, betting on the upside of a less polished product ends up working for the Dolphins.

BUST: Four years ago, the Dolphins correctly identified their long-term tackle in Laremy Tunsil. Going from Tunsil – a player who was thought to be 2016’s top talent before the draft-night bong video surfaced – to a raw talent who was Scouts Inc.'s No. 48 overall prospect does not pan out in a league that has seen teams have extensive difficulties developing tackles in recent years. Placing a quarterback with an injury-riddled past behind a boom-or-bust blocker does not prove worth the risk.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: The list of Ohio State cornerbacks drafted in Round 1 over the past seven years includes Pro Bowlers Marshon Lattimore and Denzel Ward, along with veteran starter Bradley Roby. The Raiders tap into this pipeline again and take a key step toward assembling a top-20 scoring defense for the first time since 2006. The rare fifth-year senior to become a modern first-round pick, Arnette uses his 38 starts’ worth of experience at a cornerback factory to ascend into Las Vegas’ lineup early.

BUST: The differing reviews on the Buckeyes' No. 2 cornerback last season end up making it look like the Raiders reached to fill a need rather than selecting for talent. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. did not include Arnette in his two-round mock draft, and the Raiders – who traded their 2017 first-round Ohio State corner, Gareon Conley, last year – end up still searching for consistency at a long-troublesome position for them.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Chaisson’s production – just seven sacks last year for LSU – finally catches up with his exceptional athletic ability. His ability to overwhelm even good tackles with a blend of speed and power develops even more with the help of an NFL weight-training program, and he, along with ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, are the cornerstones of a re-tooled defense. Chaisson blossoms as a pro, and helps the Jaguars rise back to the top of the AFC South as one of the leaders of a fast, fierce defense.

BUST: Chaisson’s athleticism, which was eye-popping in college, merely blends in against better competition, and he disappears for long stretches, particularly against polished, veteran tackles. His relative lack of experience as pass rusher (just 516 pass-rushing snaps in three years) hinders his development, and he gets frustrated by his inability to have success, as well as the generally moribund aura around the Jaguars. In three years, he becomes the latest Jacksonville player to try and talk his way out of town.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: Eagles fans forget about passing on Justin Jefferson as Reagor uses his supreme athleticism and after-the-catch ability to become the versatile weapon that Carson Wentz has been missing. Reagor proves that his mediocre college production was not his fault at all.

BUST: Reagor's lack of size (5-foot-11 and 194 pounds) and production prove to be legitimate knocks as he goes through an inconsistent career in which he fails to capitalize on his talent. His poor drop rate (13.0%) carries over to the NFL and hampers him constantly.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: Jefferson successfully replaces Stefon Diggs right from the get-go, using his elite run-after-catch ability (25 missed tackles forced in 2019, fourth in the country) to exploit defenses. His excellent work on intermediate (10-19 yards) targets for LSU – his 92.9 Pro Football Focus grade was seventh best in the nation – translates well to the NFL, and he gives the Vikings a dynamic weapon to pair with Adam Thielen. Minnesota wins the NFC North and Jefferson is a roster mainstay for years to come.

BUST: Jefferson’s lack of outside experience haunts him as a pro. His big 2019 season came as a slot receiver with LSU; in 2018, when he lined up wide for the majority of his snaps, he was far less productive. He can’t win outside against man coverage consistently as a pro, and therefore his 4.43 speed and ability to make plays after the catch is negated. The pressure to replace Diggs is too much, and he never finds his comfort zone in Minneapolis.  

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: With the player viewed by many as this draft’s top linebacker, the Chargers fortify what looks like one of the NFL’s best units. Loaded in their secondary and still possessing one of the NFL’s top pass rushes, the Bolts land a Day 1 starter. The three-year Oklahoma starter becomes a three-down player, anchoring the Chargers' defensive second level and joining Joey Bosa and Derwin James as the Bolts’ long-term defensive cornerstones.

BUST: The Chargers giving up their Nos. 37 and 71 overall picks to move up for Murray leaves them without a Day 2 draft choice to address their rather important left tackle deficiency. The Bolts did well to trade left tackle Russell Okung for a younger, better player in guard Trai Turner, but they now have a rookie quarterback in Justin Herbert who struggled against pressure in college. Murray represents a good bet to be an early Charger contributor, but the team ends up paying for its left tackle negligence. 

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Ruiz, who allowed only nine pressures in 2019, smoothly transitions inside to guard and completes an outstanding New Orleans offensive line. Playing with a highly talented group upfront, he improves his stunt recognition and becomes an all-around great pass protector.

BUST: Ruiz has a tough time transitioning to a new position and turns out to be a failed experiment. As a 21-year old rookie who comes into the league following his true junior season, Ruiz is unable to help the Saints during Drew Brees' final years.

-- Michael Nania

BOOM: Aiyuk finds the perfect home for his spectacular run-after-catch skills. He was sixth in the country in yards after catch per reception, at 10.9, and Kyle Shanahan’s creative offensive schemes bring out the best in him. Aiyuk’s ability to create big yardage on screen plays – his 241 yards were eighth in the country – is magnified by Shanahan’s ability to create space, and the presence of other weapons like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk is the missing piece for a team that came up one quarter short of a Super Bowl, and with him in the fold, San Francisco wins it all in 2020.

BUST: Aiyuk feasted on weak PAC-12 defenses, but he fails to separate from NFL-caliber defensive backs, and his unfamiliarity with having to make contested catches – he had just two in 2019, 486^th in the country – renders him ineffective in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo’s occasional inaccuracy means that Aiyuk has to break stride to catch passes, and his lack of size (just under 6 feet) becomes more of a hindrance. He never finds his stride with the 49ers, and is playing elsewhere after his rookie contract expires.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: This first round’s most shocking moment ends up giving the Packers another seminal “zag” moment. Fifteen years after drafting Aaron Rodgers ahead of Brett Favre’s age-36 season, the Packers choosing Love ahead of Rodgers’ age-36 campaign gives the forward-thinking franchise what could end up being a 40-plus-year quarterback pipeline stretching from Favre in 1992 to Love into the 2030s. The highest-ceiling quarterback prospect in this year’s draft, Love waits much longer than his peers but surfaces as a star after waiting out the end of Rodgers’ prime.

BUST: After years of forcing Rodgers to make do with little help in free agency, the Packers again leave a Rodgers-centered team deficient in a loaded NFC. The Packers do not cause an immediate quarterback controversy but alienate their cornerstone player, who has vowed to play into his 40s. A high-variance quarterback, Love fails to justify the investment after the pick took away Green Bay’s best chance to add a cost-controlled starter who could help Rodgers.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Brooks’ strengths – sure tackling and stout physicality against the run – play perfectly in the rugged NFC West. He gives Seattle an antidote to San Francisco’s zone running attack, and also boosts their defense against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals by functioning as an elite quarterback spy. Brooks learns from Bobby Wagner, one of the best off-ball linebackers in the league, and turns into the heart and soul of a rebuilt Seahawks defense, and provides balance to Russell Wilson’s one-man offensive show. Seattle wins at least one more Super Bowl with Brooks anchoring the Legion of Boom 2.0.

BUST: Brooks proves an anachronism in the modern NFL. Opposing offensive coordinators and quarterbacks take advantage of his downhill tendencies and fool him with play-action, and his mediocre cover skills (57.9 Pro Football Focus coverage grade in 2019) are magnified in the NFL. Brooks struggles to play in space against talented tight ends, and his strengths are minimized. He turns into a two-down linebacker, and Seattle’s defense sputters as a result.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: Despite going 14-2 last season, the Ravens did not exactly replace C.J. Mosley. With Queen, Baltimore ends up accomplishing that and adding a linebacker anchor to a defense that already includes a star-stacked secondary and pass rushers Calais Campbell and Matt Judon. A 6-foot, 229-pound LSU product, Queen overcomes perceived size limitations – which are more applicable to previous NFL eras – and fills one of the Ravens’ few need areas while representing a value buy at the end of the first round.

BUST: Just a one-year college starter, Queen cannot fill the big shoes Mosley left after he chose the Jets’ record-setting offer over sticking with a Ravens team that wanted him back. The Ravens have a tremendous opportunity in 2020 – the final year Lamar Jackson must play on a rookie contract – and Queen’s inability to be a surefire starter as a rookie weakens them as they wage a high-stakes AFC supremacy battle with the Chiefs. 

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Wilson steps in from day one and replaces Jack Conklin at right tackle. His sheer physical size and power make him an extremely effective run-blocker, and sharp coaching from the Titans’ staff refines his pass-blocking technique. Wilson’s thrives in Tennessee’s play-action-happy offense and learns to operate better in space. He plays at a Pro Bowl-caliber level, and locks down the right side of the Titans’ line for the next decade.

BUST: Wilson’s size (6-foot-7 and 340 pounds) works against him, and he loses too often against edge rushers much bigger and stronger than he played against in college. He fails to refine some of the technique issues that were worrisome at Georgia, and despite his massive frame, never asserts himself as anything more than an average NFL tackle. In five years, the Titans are again searching for a cornerstone at the position.

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: The Dolphins have gone from deploying one of the thinnest cornerback skeleton crews in recent memory to a team that now has Byron Jones, a healthy Xavien Howard and now a first-round corner. The son of two Nigerian Olympic sprinters, Igbinoghene ends up justifying the Dolphins’ extensive commitment to improving their cornerback corps. 

BUST: Entering the draft, cornerback was unquestionably the Dolphins’ strength – and not by a slim margin. Although the rebuilding Dolphins are in a position where they can stockpile talent, they have needs at many other positions. Miami using a first-round pick on a corner who graded as Scouts Inc.’s No. 60 overall prospect proves to be an unworthy selection.

-- Sam Robinson

BOOM: Gladney’s speed (clocked as fast as 4.34 in 40) and battle-tested nature in the pass-happy Big 12 prepare him well for the NFL, and he immediately thrives for a defense that needs instant impact at cornerback. Gladney is able to successfully add some bulk and challenge NFC North WRs Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay, and solidifies Minnesota’s secondary. He becomes a stalwart, makes several Pro Bowls, and helps a balanced Vikings team finally break through and win the NFC.

BUST: Gladney’s sterling 2018 turns out to be a mirage, and he is revealed as a one-year wonder. He struggles against bigger, more physical NFL wide receivers, and his speed doesn’t play as well in the cold-weather NFC North. His relative lack of size (5-foot-10 and 191 pounds) makes him a target for running games, and he never finds his niche. 

-- Chris Mueller

BOOM: This is a pick most franchises would not be able to make, but a Chiefs team devoid of many immediate needs landed its Kareem Hunt replacement. Damien Williams is attached to a team-friendly contract, but with it running only through 2020, that will place Edwards-Helaire in position to take over soon. The 5-foot-7, 207-pound tackle-shedding (and -eluding) extraordinaire only has only 476 college touches – 55 of those on receptions last season – and at the very least becomes a snazzy outlet option in a lethal offense.

BUST: As the Chiefs showed when they won a Super Bowl despite downgrading from Hunt to Williams, running back is not a position that requires first-round investments. Kansas City passing on areas of need for the future – cornerback, linebacker, interior offensive line – ends up depleting a team that will soon be limited in free-agency funds when Patrick Mahomes shatters the NFL salary record. The Chiefs do not necessarily end up regretting the Edwards-Helaire pick, but it will go down as poor resource allocation.

-- Sam Robinson