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Best TD prop targets for NFL Week 4: Build your own winner
Last week, we highlighted 10 teams and a positional group that looked to be in a good spot for potential touchdowns. Of those 10, eight delivered with at least one touchdown to someone at that position, and three games saw multiple players score from that group: the Raiders WRs, Eagles WRs and Vikings RBs.
I got a few messages from those who were able to build touchdown parlay winners off the list for their Sunday. Congrats to you if so! Treat the below as a resource first. Put together a few bets that speak to you off the data.
As we look to Week 4, there are once again a solid chunk of teams worth consideration as a target. Let's dive in.
Buffalo Bills WRs/TEs vs. Baltimore
Why they're here: Baltimore has allowed five touchdowns to receivers this season, the second-highest mark in the league. Last season, the Ravens allowed 20 scores to WRs, which was tied for fourth-most. Baltimore also allowed scores to tight ends last season, tied for sixth-most. Through three weeks, they've allowed two TDs to TEs.
Volume leaders:
- Stefon Diggs: 34 targets, 7 red zone (RZ) looks
- Isaiah McKenzie: 15 targets, 3 RZ looks
- Gabe Davis (2 games): 11 targets, 1 RZ look
- Dawson Knox: 11 targets, 1 RZ look
Jacksonville Jaguars RBs vs. Philadelphia
Why they're here: Philadelphia has allowed four touchdowns to running backs this year, tied for second-most in the league. Last season, the Eagles saw 14 running back touchdowns against them, seventh-highest in the NFL.
Volume leaders:
- James Robinson: 51 carries, 7 targets, 11 RZ looks
- Travis Etienne: 26 carries, 10 targets, 8 RZ looks
Seattle Seahawks RBs vs. Detroit
Why they're here: Detroit has allowed six touchdowns to RBs this season, two more than the next closest team. Last year, the Lions allowed 18 TDs to running backs, tied for third-most in the league.
Volume leaders:
- Rashaad Penny: 32 carries, 4 targets, 6 RZ looks
- Kenneth Walker: 7 carries, 6 targets, 1 RZ look
Houston Texans RBs vs. LA Chargers
Why they're here: The Chargers are averaging 1.0 touchdowns per game to running backs this season, and last year they allowed 19 scores to RBs, which was second-most in the league.
Volume leaders:
- Dameon Pierce: 46 carries, 4 targets, 11 RZ looks
- Rex Burkhead: 17 carries, 16 targets, 2 RZ looks
Los Angeles Chargers RBs vs. Houston
Why they're here: Same game, Houston is also averaging a touchdown per game to running backs. Last season, the Texans allowed 18 scores to RBs, tied for third-most.
Volume leaders:
- Austin Ekeler: 32 carries, 22 targets, 4 RZ looks
- Sony Michel: 16 carries, 3 targets, 3 RZ looks
- Joshua Kelley: 9 carries, 6 targets, 3 RZ looks
Tennessee Titans TEs vs. Indianapolis
Why they're here: The Colts have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second-most in the league. In 2021, Indy allowed eight scores to TEs, good for sixth-most.
Volume leaders:
- Austin Hooper: 8 targets, 1 RZ look
- Geoff Swaim: 7 targets, 2 RZ looks
Indianapolis Colts WRs vs. Tennessee
Why they're here: The Titans have allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers, tied for the most in the NFL through three weeks. This was an issue last season as well, as Tennessee allowed 20 touchdowns to WRs, tied for fourth-most.
Volume leaders:
- Michael Pittman: 22 targets, 3 RZ looks
- Ashton Dulin: 14 targets, 2 RZ looks
- Parris Campbell: 8 targets, 1 RZ look
- Alec Pierce (2 games): 7 targets, 3 RZ looks
Dallas Cowboys WRs vs. Washington
Why they're here: Washington has allowed five touchdowns to receivers, tied for fourth-most on the young season. Last year, their 19 touchdowns allowed to the position was tied for sixth-most.
Volume* leaders:
- CeeDee Lamb: 34 targets, 2 RZ looks
- Noah Brown: 21 targets, 5 RZ looks
*Keep an eye on the health of Michael Gallup, who has yet to play this season.
Cleveland Browns WRs vs. Atlanta
Why they're here: Atlanta is tied for the most touchdowns allowed to WRs, at 6. The Falcons allowed 19 last season, tied for sixth-most.
Volume leaders:
- Amari Cooper: 27 targets, 3 RZ looks
- Donovan Peoples-Jones: 15 targets, 2 RZ looks
Pittsburgh Steelers RBs vs. NY Jets
Why they're here: The Jets have allowed four touchdowns to RBs this season, tied for second-most. No team allowed more scores to running backs last season than New York, with 23 total.
Volume leaders:
- Najee Harris: 40 carries, 11 targets, 8 RZ looks
- Jaylen Warren: 11 carries, 3 targets, 3 RZ looks
Denver Broncos RBs/TEs vs. Las Vegas
Why they're here: The Raiders are inside the top-ten for most touchdowns allowed to both RBs (3) and TEs (2). The same can be said for last season, as Las Vegas allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends with 10 and the sixth-most to running backs with 16.
Volume leaders:
- Javonte Williams: 37 carries, 21 targets, 7 RZ looks
- Melvin Gordon: 34 carries, 9 targets, 6 RZ looks
- Albert Okwuegbunam: 10 targets, 1 RZ look
- Eric Saubert: 4 targets, 1 RZ look
More must-reads:
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