Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1). Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

'Beat the Line' moves for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 1/8/24

We went 3-0 against the spread in our last edition of "Beat the Line," bringing our season record to 27-12-8 in creating closing line value and 27-19-1 ATS. Not too shabby!

Now it's time to turn the page to the 2024 NFL playoffs, and it won't be easy because the lines are the sharpest they've been all season. We're still eyeing up a few lines that could move in our favor before wild-card weekend gets underway, so let's break 'em down.

2023-24 record: 27-12-8 CLV, 27-19-1 ATS

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Dolphins had an explosive offense throughout the regular season, but that big-play ability vanished whenever they stepped up in class. In six games against playoff teams this year, Miami went 1-5 and averaged only 17.67 points per game. The Dolphins managed only 292 yards of offense and 14 points against the Chiefs in Week 9, and that was with perfect weather conditions in Germany.

The forecast in Kansas City this Saturday is calling for freezing cold temperatures, high wind gusts and a real feel below zero. Oh, and Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle won't be 100 percent healthy even if they suit up for the game.

This is shaping up to be an offensive disaster for Miami, and that should cause this total to crash before Saturday.

The bet to make: Under 44 (-110 FanDuel)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anyone interested in another under? Too bad, we're doing it anyway.

This Eagles offense is completely broken right now. They have no answer for the blitz, and they rely too much on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith making miraculous plays in tight coverage to bail them out. Well, the Buccaneers blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and both Brown and Smith are dealing with injuries entering wild-card weekend. So is Jalen Hurts, who injured his right middle finger in Week 18 and will likely need to wear a splint on his throwing hand for the game.

As for the Bucs, they couldn't find the end zone once against the atrocious Carolina Panthers in Week 18, and they managed only 11 points against the Eagles in their Week 3 matchup. Baker Mayfield is also playing through a rib injury, and he limped through Sunday's game after taking a big hit in the first half.

We have no confidence in either offense right now, and we're not sure why the betting market does.

The bet to make: Under 44 (-108 DraftKings)

Start your betting day right! Sign up for Bark Bets, the best sports betting newsletter on the web!

More must-reads: