31 Days Until Training Camp: Biggest Question at Tight End

There are two competing realities at tight end for the Green Bay Packers entering their 2023 training camp.

First, they need a sudden impact from rookies Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Returning tight ends Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis, a pair of 2020 NFL Draft choices, bring a combined 47 receptions to the party, and Deguara isn’t really a true tight end, anyway.

Second, no position makes less of a rookie impact than tight end.

Can the Packers’ rookie tight ends buck that reality?

During the 15 drafts held from 2008 through 2022, 71 tight ends were drafted in the first, second and third rounds. Broken down, that’s 12 in the first round, 23 in the second round and 36 in the third round. The third-round group includes Packers draft picks Jermichael Finley in 2008, Richard Rodgers in 2020, Jace Sternberger in 2019 and Deguara in 2020.

The numbers are quite amazing.

Almost one-third of those players, 23 in all, failed to catch even 10 passes as rookies. Almost half, 35, scored zero or one touchdown.

For Green Bay, Rodgers caught 20 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in 16 games, Finley caught six passes for 74 yards and one touchdown in 14 games, Deguara caught one pass for 12 yards in two games before a season-ending knee injury and Sternberger’s miserable career was foreshadowed by going without a catch in six games.

That’s a combined 27 receptions for 311 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers will need more than that – probably much more than that – from Musgrave and/or Kraft if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot.

“There’s just so much knowledge that you have to acquire in terms of you’re responsible in the running game and the passing game and you might have some protection responsibility,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of the challenge for a tight end. “I think outside of the quarterback position, you’re talking on the offensive side of the ball, the tight ends have to know the second-most of anybody because they have every facet of the game.”

That’s not to say Musgrave and Kraft are doomed to Year 1 mediocrity. In 2022, four tight ends were selected in the second and third rounds. The Broncos’ Greg Dulcich (third round) caught 33 passes for 411 yards, the Cardinals’ Trey McBride (second round) caught 29 passes for 265 yards and one touchdown and the Colts’ Jelani Woods (third round) caught 25 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns.

The Falcons’ Kyle Pitts had an all-time great rookie season with 68 receptions for 1,026 yards and one touchdown in 2021. As the fourth pick in that draft and a rare prospect, comparing him to Musgrave and Kraft would be unfair. However, the Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth, a second-round pick in 2021, caught 60 passes for 497 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie.

The median production for a rookie tight end selected in the first three rounds is 21 receptions, 244 yards and two touchdowns. In all, five players had 50-plus catches.

The median production as that group moves into Year 2 is 33 receptions for 356 yards and three touchdowns. In all, 19 players had 50-plus catches, including nine with at least 60 receptions.

The median production for a rookie tight end selected in the second or third rounds, to better fit with Musgrave and Kraft, is 17 receptions for 180 yards and one touchdown. Six players caught at least 40 passes, led by Freiermuth’s 60, while 15 caught less than five passes.

As it moves into Year 2, the medians from the Day 2 group are 30 receptions for 338 yards and two touchdowns. Jimmy Graham (third round) and Rob Gronkowski (second round) both hit 90 receptions, 1,300 yards and double-digits touchdowns. A total of 17 hit 50-plus catches.