Will Lakers star bet on himself this fall?

The Lakers' All-Star big man is eligible to extend his current contract as early as Friday. 

According to ESPN's Bobby Marks, the Lakers can tack three years and $170M onto Davis' current deal, which would keep him with the team past his 35th birthday in 2028. He'd also have to opt into his $43.2M deal for 2024-25, meaning he'd effectively be signing for four years and $211M.

While the Lakers aren't allowed to speak publicly about contract negotiations, both owner Jeanie Buss and GM Rob Pelinka said they wanted "continuity" and implied an extension offer for Davis was coming.

If Davis were to exercise his early-termination option next summer, he would become an unrestricted free agent - likely the biggest one in the NBA. He'd also be eligible for an even larger contract than the Lakers can offer this fall. As a 10-year veteran, Davis can sign a five-year deal starting at 35 percent of the salary cap, which could be as high as $52.4M.

That's essentially the value of Jaylen Brown's extension with the Celtics - more than $300M for five years. Davis could get an extra $80M-90M, although the free-agent deal could have an extra year, so it's not an exact comparison.

But there's a risk. Davis hasn't been the most reliable player in the last few years. He had his healthiest season in years in 2022-23, and he still missed 26 games. In 2020-21, The Brow missed 36 games, and in 2021-22, he missed 42. AD was a dominant defender during the Lakers' run to the conference finals and looks extremely valuable right now. Would he look as valuable if he misses half a season with injuries again?

The other risk Davis faces is that teammate LeBron James does more than speculate about retirement this year. Though it's hard to imagine James walking away from his $51M salary in 2024-25, these could be his final two seasons. And if James is on his way out, the Lakers might think twice about signing AD for four additional years past King James' retirement.

That's the risk. Davis can lock in a staggering amount of money this fall. But if he declines an extension, he's gambling that he can stay healthy and effective. And his prize is an even more staggering amount of money. We'll see how much AD wants to gamble.