Knicks vs. 76ers Game 4 prediction, odds, pick for 4/28: Take the points with NY

Knicks vs. 76ers Odds

Sunday, April 28, 1 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

New York Knicks

The Knicks haven't blown a 2-0 series lead in the playoffs since 1993, but it's already beginning to feel as though that streak could be in jeopardy.

After surviving a disastrous 8-for-29 shooting night from Jalen Brunson to gut out a Game 2 win, things were certainly looking up given the Knicks won despite one of their worst offensive showings in weeks. Unfortunately, their defense turned around and surrendered essentially a 50% shooting night from 3, resulting in a ridiculous 137.4 defensive rating, and along the way they were outrebounded by Philly to boot.

The rebounding margin is of particular concern given the Knicks led the way in that department all season long, and even when Embiid was playing, the Sixers were pretty much a below-average team in that regard.

New York held a rebounding edge during the regular season last year, and after a commanding performance against the Cavs, were outrebounded by a poor rebounding side in the Heat the very next round. After the Knicks snatched away 60.2% of boards in Game 1 of this series, they pulled in just 50.9% in Game 2 before Thursday's trouncing.

In terms of 3-point defense, this is also a concern. The Knicks were just 17th in defending the arc this year, according to Cleaning the Glass, though from March 1 to the end of the season were seventh.

They managed to hold Philly to around 35% shooting in the first two games, too, so there's a glimmer of hope that they can ride their offense — which worked very well on Thursday — to a victory here if the 76ers' 3-pointers stop falling.

Rebounding troubles could persist with Mitchell Robinson listed as questionable, however.

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Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers will need to keep lighting it up offensively if they want to level this series. Their defense has lagged behind significantly, posting what is a pretty poor 113 defensive rating in Game 2 when you consider New York's highest-volume shooter had a brutal night from the field.

Philly has allowed 40% shooting from 3 over the course of the playoffs and the play-in, according to Cleaning the Glass, and while its interior defense has been working quite well, it's really of little use against a Knicks team that does most of their damage from outside.

We touched on the offensive prowess of this team in Game 3, and while the performance was special, the Sixers still failed to get much done inside, hitting a low 58.7% of shots around the rim. The reason would seem to be that Embiid is not quite fully healed from his knee issue and has been taking far more shots from outside the arc than normal — something that worked in Game 3, but hasn't been working game-to-game in the postseason.

There's also the fact that Embiid is listed as questionable here due to the knee, and is also battling a case of Bell's palsy. We saw a herculean effort from him to lift the Sixers to a win in Game 3, but without him, this team is done for.

Knicks vs. 76ers

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm willing to bet that the Knicks' 3-point defense, which made great strides after the acquisition of OG Anunoby, will return to form after two splendid performances earlier in the series and a couple months of solid play.

Without the 3, too, the Sixers really have had few ways to score with the Knicks defending the rim exceptionally and performing well against the mid-range jumper in Game 3.

On the flip side, this Knicks offense keeps rolling despite a loss on Thursday. With how well they continue to shoot from deep, they should put themselves in a winning position. Keep in mind that the Knicks were 23-18 straight up on the road this season and actually shot 0.8 points better in these games from deep.

Give me the points with the better team. The only way the Sixers win is another outlier performance on the glass and from deep, which seems unlikely.

Pick: Knicks +5 (-105; Caesars Sportsbook)