NBA best bets: Expert picks for 3/27 include a smash spot for the Nuggets

Warriors vs. Magic

Wednesday, March 27, 7 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Magic -3.5 (Caesars)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

Surprise, surprise. I'm on the Magic again.

I'll keep the Magic side brief since I've written about them plenty of times before, but if we look at the Warriors' side of the equation, we'll find that it's a bad spot for them coming off a back-to-back in Miami.

On top of that, Golden State is playing its third game in four nights and fourth game in six nights, and we could even see some players rest against Orlando.

Even if the Dubs don't rest guys, I still like the Magic to take care of business at home, which they've done plenty of times this season. This team responds well to adversity, and they faced a tough call in their most recent game against the Kings, which went down to the wire but ultimately ended in a home loss.

This season, the Magic are 10-3 ATS at home when they lost the previous game. I think we see a double-digit Magic win, so I'll play some alt-spreads in addition to laying the 3.5.

Pick: Magic -3.5

Clippers vs. 76ers

Wednesday, March 27, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Clippers -5.5 (ESPN BET)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

It hasn't looked pretty for the Clippers lately. They're 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games, but they find themselves in a favorable spot Wednesday night against the 76ers, who are coming home after a four-game West Coast road trip against the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Kings.

We saw the Sixers struggle to keep up against Sacramento, which made relatively easy work of them, while the game before saw Philly blow the Clippers out of the water on their home court in L.A.

The strategy of fading teams in their first game at home after a road trip of three or more games has gone 96-72-3 ATS this season. If we take that same rest scenario but look at teams that are home dogs with a spread of +3 or more, fading them is even more profitable at 29-16-3 ATS for 22% ROI.

Add in the fact that the Sixers are playing their fourth game in six nights, and this is the perfect get-right spot for L.A.

I like the Clippers at -5.5 for a full unit, and I feel strongly about them winning this game. But based on their recent struggles, I'd reduce risk at anything worse than -5.5.

Pick: Clippers -5.5

Knicks vs. Raptors

Wednesday, March 27, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 Assists (Caesars)

By Bryan Fonseca

As I noted on our best bets file two days ago, Isaiah Hartenstein is back, and the books were slow to adjust. Now, they have for the most part — his points and rebounds are back up around 10 each — but the assists are still a good play because they're a tad low to me.

Hartenstein has gone over 2.5 assists in eight of his last 14 contests, averaging 3.4 dimes during that stretch. With a lesser, more recent sample — where he's been playing back to his pre-injury self though still restricted to the mid-20s in terms of minutes — I-Hart has gone over 2.5 assists in four of his last five, and this is still at plus-money.

The Knicks are utilizing his playmaking more from the top of the key as he gets healthier, whether it's dribble handoffs, finding shooters on the wings or cutters to the basket. As long as he's hovering around 25 minutes, this is an attainable bet.

The minutes restriction is probably why this is plus-money, but it hasn't been a large deterrent in recent games because he's been that productive.

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 Assists (+106)

Lakers vs. Grizzlies

Wednesday, March 27, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Anthony Davis Over 22.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

This is a great matchup for Anthony Davis as the Lakers take on the Grizzlies.

Although AD and the Lakers played a double-overtime game yesterday, this still is a solid spot. While there's some risk he sits due to rest, given where the Lakers are in the standings, that feels unlikely when you consider he has already played in 11 back-to-back sets.

In those 11 games without rest, AD is averaging 26.3 PPG and has exceeded 22.5 points in seven of his 11 games. This is actually an uptick over his full-season average of 24.7 points.

While there's an expectation that LeBron James plays tonight after missing yesterday’s game, AD still should see plenty of usage and opportunity.

From a head-to-head perspective, AD has thrived in this matchup against Jaren Jackson Jr. Over the last three seasons, AD has averaged 25.3 PPG while scoring 22-plus in five of his six regular-season games. If we add in the playoff series, he has 22-plus in 8-of-12.

His ability to stretch the floor while also attacking the rack makes this an extremely difficult matchup even for an elite defender like JJJ.

I like AD to exceed 22.5 points tonight.

Pick: Anthony Davis Over 22.5 Points

Pacers vs. Bulls

Wednesday, March 27, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Bulls +3 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

This slate is chock-full of bad rest spots for teams, and this matchup between two Central Division rivals is no different.

The Pacers travel to Chicago to face the Bulls, who have been struggling lately, dropping their last three straight. Losing to the surging Rockets and the juggernaut Celtics is nothing to be ashamed of, but the most recent loss to the Wizards is concerning.

But it's also the exact type of loss that can make a team snap out of a funk.

While the Pacers may not seem like the right team to do that against, the Bulls are catching Indiana at the right time in their schedule. This is the last stop for the Pacers before returning home to face the Lakers — a team they just lost to on national TV.

It's a recurring theme for me today, but I'm once again looking to fade the team playing its fourth game in six nights, as the Pacers are tonight. Plus, they could be without two key rotation pieces in Aaron Nesmith (knee) and TJ McConnell (ankle), who are both questionable.

While I'll like the Bulls more if both of them sit, Nesmith is the most impactful of the two, as Andrew Nembhard has enough overlap with what McConnell brings to the table in terms of someone who can run the second-unit offense when Tyrese Haliburton isn't on the floor.

It should be noted that Alex Caruso might also miss tonight's game (ankle), but I'll still like the Bulls as long as Coby White and DeMar DeRozan are in the game.

With a significant rest advantage for Chicago, I'll like the Bulls at any 'dog price — even if the injury report doesn't shake out perfectly for us.

Pick: Bulls +3

Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 3s (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

Ayo Dosunmu has been all over the place in terms of overall scoring, but his 3-point shooting has been more of a constant as the season has progressed.

He's gone over 1.5 3s regularly for an extended period. Since Jan. 10 — a 34-game sample of 34.5 minutes per contest — he's averaging 2.2 3s made on five attempts per game, hitting 43.8% from deep during that stretch. In that large sample, he's made more than 1.5 3s in 23 of his 34 games.

Narrowing it down from Jan. 30 until now — so basically the last two months — actually helps the case. Dosunmu has gone over 1.5 3s in 18-of-25 games while making 2.4 3s per contest on 43% shooting.

This is at 1.5 is because he went 1-for-5, 1-for-4 and 1-for-5 for three straight games two weeks ago. However, he's gone over in four of his five since. I think he keeps it going.

Pick: Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 3s (-102)

Suns vs. Nuggets

Wednesday, March 27, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Nuggets 1Q -2 & 1H -4 (DraftKings) 

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

I think this is a smash spot for the Nuggets, and I like them to do damage early in this game. Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic are both questionable for the Suns, but I doubt either of them plays considering neither practiced on Tuesday.

If that's the case, we can look at their lineups without those two. The Suns' most-used lineup without Nurkic or Beal includes Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen, Drew Eubanks, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

That lineup has a -7.5 Net Rating, and if those five start, the Suns could be easily exploitable early on. Phoenix is also just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 first quarters and 3-7 on the road.

On the Nuggets' side, they have the motivation angle after losing outright in the last head-to-head matchup despite the Suns missing Booker.

In games where the Nuggets lost their last head-to-head matchup, they’re just 9-11-1 ATS this season. But if we isolate the first half, they’re 14-7-1 ATS this season and 65-34-3 since the bubble season.

More recently, Denver is 7-2-1 ATS at home and 8-1-1 in the first half in its last 10 overall.

I'll spread 1.25 units across the Nuggets in the first quarter and first half, betting to win 0.4 units and 0.85 units, respectively.

Pick: Nuggets 1Q -2 & 1H -4