NBA best bets: 5 expert picks for Tuesday 5/7

Cavaliers vs. Celtics

Tuesday, May 7, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
Cavs Total Team Under 98.5 (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Cavs broke 100 twice against Orlando and just once last year — so three times in 12 playoff games.

"Save Us Donovan Mitchell" offense is going to be hard to come by against a Derrick White and Jrue Holiday backcourt, with Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown as lengthy alternative options.

Al Horford vs. Evan Mobley is a defensive match-up you can live with. Darius Garland will face similar issues to Mitchell, Max Strus is streaky, and Jarrett Allen is hurt.

I may play this to 97.5 at the absolute most, but I'd rather keep it here.

Pick: Cavs Total Team Under 98.5

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Tuesday, May 7, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
PJ Washington Over 11.5 Points and Alt Threes (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

Just a tad bit low, PJ is averaging 35.3 MPG through Round One and I expect his minutes to remain in that range or maybe trend up now that Maxi Kleber is injured.

PJ fits the mold of Kleber of being able to guard multiple positions so he should soak up a lot of the newly available minutes. He’s averaging about 10.8 PPG but he didn’t shoot the ball very well in the first round, converting on just 28% of his threes. The minutes will be there but the main reason I like this bet is OKCs defensive scheme.

The Thunder allow a lot of corner threes and currently rank dead-last in the NBA in corner three point attempt rate allowed (14.1%) this postseason. They ranked dead-last in regular season as well. PJ is taking a career high 21% of his shots from the corner three as a Maverick, but has only converted on 23% of these corner attempts. PJ attempted 7 3s and went for 1/11 in their last game against OKC so the opportunity is there for him. I think PJ is a better shooter than what he has shown as a Maverick and I like him to go over this number at 11.5.

I’d also recommend pairing his over with alt threes, where you can get him around +650 to make 4 threes.

Pick: PJ Washington Over 11.5 Points and Alt Threes

Cavaliers vs. Celtics

Tuesday, May 7, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
Derrick White Over 3.5 Assists (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Celtics take on the Cavaliers in the second round of the playoffs. One player I’m targeting is Derrick White.

On the season, Boston was led by Derrick White in the assist department — who averaged 5.1 assists on 8.3 potentials per game and this increased to 5.3 assists in the games he played without Kristaps Porzingis.

He played well against Cleveland this year as well. In three matchups against the Cavs he recorded 4.7 assists per game on 8.3 potentials.

The Cavaliers do a good job of limiting opponent assists; however, without Porzingis, the Celtics will need a better offensive process and more assists overall to find success this round.

White has exceeded this 3.5 line in 72% of games this season and I’ll lay the juice on the base along with grabbing 5+ (+155 Bet365) and 6+ (+290 FD).

Pick: Derrick White Over 3.5 Assists

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Mavs To Win Series (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

I've had the Mavs going to the Western Conference Finals since seeding was announced, and here we are.

I think OKC is really good, but this Mavericks team is legit defensively and Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to be a match-up problem unlike anything the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans had.

PJ Washington's physicality will be one of the underrated stories of this series, and I think they'll have enough shooting and two-way play to point the arrow in their direction.

If Doncic vs. SGA is a wash, Irving — who is playing his most reserved hoops since damn 2016 — is the next best player in the series, who could be anywhere from 1 and 2 on any given night.

I'll take Luka, who is exceptional on the road, and Irving, who highlights the team's big-game playoff experience, over the Thunder's talented youth. Though, I'd be shocked if this isn't at least a six gamer.

Pick: Mavs To Win Series

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Mavericks face off against the Thunder today in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals.

I expect Luka Doncic to set the tone early here. Although he’s had efficiency issues throughout the Playoffs as he seems to be dealing with a balky knee, he has now had 3+ days of rest – this game is likely the freshest he will feel throughout this series.

When Luka has had 3+ days of rest this season he is averaging 35.6 ppg, higher than any of his averages. He has played 10 games with the 3+ days of rest and has exceeded 31.5 in 9/10 games.

This game against the Thunder is one I want to target as well. Luka is averaging 34 ppg against OKC this season with 36 and 32 point performances. I can see OKC throwing Dort on him which may limit his efficiency, but Luka’s a volume king.

I expect Luka to start this series off strong with some fresh legs and exceed 31.5 points.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points