NBA Analyst Debunks Conspiracy Theory On Lakers Wild Free Throw Differential

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a massive talk point all week after a journalist showed the Lakers' incredible +1017 free throw differential over the last two seasons, including the playoffs. But Zach Kram of The Ringer has shown how those numbers are entirely plausible given the Lakers play-style.

"Here is ample reason to believe this Lakers team should draw many more fouls than it commits. On offense, the Lakers rank 29th in 3-point attempt rate, per Cleaning the Glass, and are tied for second in the rate of shots they attempt at the rim. In other words, L.A. takes a larger proportion of its shots in the area most likely to draw foul calls."

Kram also explained how the Lakers' defense ends up restricting free throws given to opposing teams.

"The Lakers allow the fourth-lowest frequency of shots at the rim and the fifth-highest frequency of 3-pointers, meaning they funnel opposing teams into the sorts of shots that don’t draw fouls. Teams with similar defensive shot charts include the Celtics, who rank second in lowest opponent free throw rate, and the Heat, who rank fourth."

Kram has pointed out excellent historical indicators as to why the Lakers have the free throw advantage they have. Does the fact they're the big-market Lakers with LeBron James on the roster help? Probably, but nothing is indicating that the Lakers or James-led teams will always historically receive help on free throws. 

The Lakers over the last two seasons have bought into this as their identity, prompting players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis to be better shooters. However, getting more free throws isn't a silver bullet to success given some of the teams who have held similar advantages in the past and the Lakers' position as the No. 9 seed this year.

How Historic Is The Lakers 23-24 Free Throw Advantage?

The Ringer also pulled together data behind other league leaders in free throw differential, which shows how the Lakers are completely in line with historical trends. Matter of fact, the Lakers are not even close to being a team with a historic free-throw advantage.

The team that ended the season with the biggest free throw disparity in the 21st venture is the 2017-18 Charlotte Hornets, with a +722 in their favor. The team missed the playoffs with a 36-46 record but had players like Dwight Howard who would draw a lot of free throws.

The team with the second-biggest advantage was the James Harden-led 2013-14 Houston Rockets, who were +705 and were first-round exits despite winning 54 games.

The third-largest free throw differential over a season comes from the 2012-13 Lakers with Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Steve Nash at +695. They won 45 games in the regular season and like the Rockets, were a first-round exit. 

The 2022-23 Lakers ended the season with a +476, which ranks for 10th-most in the 21st century. The 2023-24 Lakers could surpass that, who currently sit at +451 with 10 games remaining.

The Lakers have more than double the advantage from the line than their contemporaries, which is the issue that people are illustrating. This will continue to be a polarizing topic for NBA fans going forward, especially if the Lakers make a playoff run.