A 2021 offseason preview for the Sacramento Kings

The Kings’ Offseason Plan

The Kings’ decisions will start with the draft, where they have the ninth and 39th overall picks, but there will be plenty of choices that must be made from there. General manager Monte McNair has said that the Kings will be aggressive this offseason, whether in the draft, free agency or trade.

As far as trades go, there are three clear candidates: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes and Bagley.

Hield, at 28 years old, is the third-oldest player under contract in Sacramento and is coming off two successive seasons that were less productive than the one before them. He also doesn’t fit in a lineup with Fox and Haliburton, so if the Kings are looking to build around that backcourt pair, they would have to either trade Hield or bring him off the bench, which isn’t easy to do with your second-highest paid player. Hield is still a high-level shooter who can put the ball on the floor, and is locked up on a long-term deal, which could prove attractive to teams looking to add shooting.

Barnes is on a descending contract over the next two seasons, and provides a good mix of defense and shot creation. The Kings would likely rather keep than deal him, as he fits nicely with the Fox-Haliburton pairing, but his continued presence is made more complicated by the unsolved puzzle of how the Kings build their frontcourt.

Bagley’s three seasons have been riddled with injuries, and even when healthy, he presents major question marks. Offensively, he’s more of a center than a power forward, but he’s not a good enough defender to anchor a defense. He showed the ability to make threes at a decent rate this season, hitting 34% on 2.5 attempts per game, and is a talented rebounder and athlete around the rim. Holmes helped cover for him defensively this year, but Holmes is a free agent, and the Kings might not be able to offer him enough to keep him in Sacramento long-term.

The Kings had the worst defense in the league last season, and if they’re unable to retain Holmes, it could get even worse, especially if they build around Bagley as their full-time center. There are a lot of interesting centers on the market this summer, but none is going to significantly change the trajectory of the Kings.

Bagley is also extension-eligible, and will be a free agent next summer, meaning the Kings have to decide how much they prioritize him. If they don’t want to invest in Bagley long-term, packaging him with Hield, the ninth pick, or both, could be an enticing option for McNair, either as a draft-day trade up for a higher pick, or for a high-level prospect — the name Ben Simmons has been raised by some as a potential target, although the fit is questionable, and it’s uncertain the Sixers would consider that enough of a return.

The other player who might figure into trade talks is Delon Wright. The guard is owed $8.5 million and will be an expiring contract. He brings an interesting blend of size, shooting and defense to either guard spot. The 29-year-old could help a playoff team off the bench, and could be useful in compiling salary in a trade for a non-star level player.

Salary-cap situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

• De’Aaron Fox ($28,103,550) ¹
• Buddy Hield ($22,768,890)
• Harrison Barnes ($20,284,091)
• Marvin Bagley III ($11,312,114)
• Delon Wright ($8,526,316)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($4,023,600)
• Jahmi’us Ramsey ($1,517,981)
• Robert Woodard ($1,517,981)
• Total: $98,054,523
   

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• None
   

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Damian Jones ($1,977,011) ²
• Justin James ($1,782,621) ³
• Chimezie Metu ($1,762,796) ⁴
• Total: $5,522,428
   

Restricted Free Agents

• Terence Davis ($1,897,476 qualifying offer / $1,897,476 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $1,897,476
   

Two-Way Free Agents

• Kyle Guy ⁵
• Louis King

Draft Picks

• No. 9 overall pick ($4,603,320)
• No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
• Total: $4,603,320

Extension-Eligible Players

• Marvin Bagley III (rookie scale)
• Harrison Barnes (veteran)
• Justin James (veteran)
• Delon Wright (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Richaun Holmes ($6,506,955): Early Bird rights
• Maurice Harkless ($4,347,600): Non-Bird rights
• Hassan Whiteside ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
• Corey Brewer ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights ⁶
• Total: $14,192,911
   

Offseason cap outlook

The Kings are in a bit of a tight spot financially, with only eight guaranteed deals taking up nearly $100 million in cap space. It’s likely they’ll operate as a team over the cap but under the luxury tax, but that will be affected by how they approach Holmes’ free agency.

They won’t be able to offer Holmes more than the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (which is in the same neighborhood as the MLE) unless they open up cap room. It’s easy to envision Holmes drawing offers worth more than the mid-level on the open market, so if the Kings want to keep him following his breakout year, they might need to make a trade to create space.

With backup center Whiteside headed to free agency after a disappointing season, it seems likely that the Kings will guarantee the contracts of Jones and Metu, and 6-7 wing James played well enough in his minutes to be worth keeping around another year.

Davis will be a big question for the Kings — after a strong rookie year that saw him named to 2020’s All-Rookie Second Team, the shooting guard saw his minutes dip in Toronto and he was eventually traded to Sacramento, where he had some of the best games of his career. It’s unlikely that he’s offered a large deal in restricted free agency, making it easier for Sacramento to retain him. If they should do so, the Kings will have to find a way to re-balance their roster, as five of their 11 rostered players would be shooting guards.

Two-way player King played only six games for Sacramento, but scored 7.3 PPG on 36.4% from three in only 14 MPG. At 6-7 and only 21 years old, he represents an interesting investment if the Kings should decide to sign him to a multiyear, partially guaranteed deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 ⁷
• Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 ⁷
• Trade exception: $3,600,000
• Trade exception: $2,009,019
   

Footnotes 

1. This is a projected value. Fox’s salary will be 25% of the 2021-22 salary cap.
2. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after Aug. 9.
3. James’ salary is expected to become fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
4. Metu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($881,938) after Aug. 9.
5. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Kings for two seasons, Guy is ineligible to sign another two-way deal.
6. The cap hold for Brewer remains on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
7. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.