UFC Vegas 86 odds, pick and prediction: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer, major upset in main event? (Saturday, Feb. 10)

Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer Odds

Pyfer is the younger, faster, stronger fighter and the much more dangerous finisher in the early part of the fight.

While Hermansson is a competent, high-volume, technical kickboxer, he prefers to fight on the edges of a larger octagon. He seems less comfortable with his range in the smaller confines of the UFC Apex (1-2, including a pair of main-event losses to Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori) than he is in the standard 30-foot cage.

Hermansson likes to fire low kicks, combine them with straight punches, stick and move, and keep his opponents chasing him around the cage. However, he doesn't have the power to deter hulking opponents like Pyfer from closing the distance and crashing the pocket; Hermansson has less space to escape pressure in the Apex cage.

A fresh Pyfer should get the better of the striking exchanges early by landing the more brutal, cleaner head strikes; even if Hermansson edges ahead on volume with kicks, he's likely going to get clipped or wobbled and cede the early rounds to Pyfer's boxing on damage optics.

To break that pressure – and avoid getting knocked out in the opening rounds – Hermansson needs to grapple. And he needs to either find a way to push Pyfer up against the fence or, hopefully, take him down and get on top.

"The Joker" has a vicious top game: heavy pressure, with mean ground and pound, and the ability to capitalize on opportunistic submissions.

Tale of the Tape

Hermansson must grapple a presumably aggressive Pyfer – whether successfully or not – to survive the early onslaught. If he does survive the first two rounds, I expect the momentum to swing heavily in his direction. And he's likely an excellent live bet after Rounds 2 and 3.

Pyfer must finish Hermansson within the first couple of rounds to justify his price tag (-275, or 73.3% implied win probability). If he does anything from the outset other than back Hermansson up and attempt to box his head off, the flow of the fight should benefit the underdog.

Hermansson has vastly more experience – especially over five rounds – against a much higher level of middleweight competition, including a former champion and multiple title challengers.

Perhaps Pyfer, who has never faced a five-round test, attempts to conserve his energy early and engage in a low-tempo kickboxing affair; that's Hermansson's preferred style.

If Pyfer fails to pace himself and doesn't finish Hermansson early, I expect him to run out of energy for the second half of the fight – based on the optics of past performances. As a result, Pyfer may end up in Hermansson's preferred sparring kickboxing match while getting progressively more tired for the final three rounds – if not get finished himself.

After wrestling and securing a submission against Abdul Razzak Alhassan in his last fight, there's also the possibility that Pyfer attempts to prove a point against Hermansson early and tries to out-grapple him. And while Pyfer probably can get on top of Hermansson at full strength, I'd consider it a win for Hermansson, who will look to neutralize position and do what he can to drain time off the clock and energy from Pyfer's untested gas tank.

Pyfer is extremely dangerous, and most of his positive outcomes involve a highlight-reel finish in which underdog tickets and overs – both of which are correlated in this fight – look like they never had a chance.

That's the nature of betting on some MMA fights; losses count the same when you lose via knockout in 10 seconds or split decision. But the ability to stomach and place a bet when a loss likely looks like a video-game fatality hits differently.

Hermansson should take over the fight beyond 10 minutes if he can get there.

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