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It’s been a while since a prospect came along with as much buzz as
Bo
Nickal has just three fights into his professional career. Not
only does the former Dan Hodge Trophy winner have the sort of
impeccable wrestling credentials that have proven to the foundation
of many a hall-of-fame MMA career, but he has adapted exceedingly
well to his new sport. He showed brutal knockout power on his feet
in his first bout and slick submissions in his next two. Adaptation
is pivotal to thrive in MMA, and Nickal has demonstrated he has
that ability.
Nickal’s admission into the
Ultimate Fighting Championship felt inevitable even before his
second
Dana White’s Contender Series fight. Nobody gave opponent
Donovan
Beard much of a chance, and the betting odds were more akin to
an undercard boxing match where a top prospect is paired with a
hapless journeyman than what we’re accustomed to seeing from a
fight promoted by the UFC. The belief among fight observers was
that the UFC already had Nickal’s next steps planned.
After Nickal proceeded to run through Beard on Sept. 27, he spoke
not like someone with a bright MMA future but someone who wants to
be a star immediately. Part of that is surely to generate attention
and enhance his marketability, but you don’t talk about fighting
Khamzat
Chimaev before your proper UFC debut if you’re not planning on
making waves in a hurry. His first opponent,
Jamie
Pickett, is much more in line with what you would expect for an
inexperienced competitor making his UFC debut, but if he wins
impressively in that fight and maybe one more, the calls will come
for him to show what he can do against high-end competition.
There are, of course, rich rewards to be gained if you establish
yourself as a prodigy right out of the gate and fans are clamoring
to see you fight every time out. However, there are also
significant downsides to rushing a fighter’s development. Nickal
was riding high a week ago, but by weekend’s end, there were a
couple of reminders, if not cautionary tales, of why Nickal and his
management might want to slow down a little bit and take their time
in his MMA rise.
The UFC and
Bellator
MMA both ran cards on Saturday, and two of the most intriguing
fights of the night involved fighters who entered MMA with sterling
credentials from a different sport. In the case of Bellator, it was
world-class freestyle wrestler
Aaron Pico
facing arguably the biggest challenge of his career in
Jeremy
Kennedy. In the UFC, it was jiu-jitsu world champion
Mackenzie
Dern main eventing for the second time against
Xiaonan
Yan.
Pico is probably the closest recent comp to
Bo Nickal.
When Pico made his MMA debut in Madison Square Garden in 2017, it
generated so much attention that ESPN.com put it as the main story
on its front page. It made sense for Bellator to build up his debut
as much as possible in its quest to create young stars, but it
ended up backfiring when Pico was rocked and submitted in less than
30 seconds by a much more experienced opponent.
Since then, Pico has showed strong natural skills for the sport:
great takedowns, a dominant ground game and striking power.
However, his push to fight tough opposition right from the
beginning has resulted in a series of setbacks. His shoulder injury
against Kennedy was more of an unfortunate fluke, but it was one he
couldn’t really afford given that his career record now stands at
an unimposing 10-4 and the buzz surrounding him has largely
dissipated. There is certainly no guarantee things would have
turned out differently if he had gone slower, but given his tools
and his record, it’s easy to conclude Pico, his team and Bellator
made the wrong play. That play is pretty much the exact same play
Nickal wants to attempt now.
Dern didn’t go quite as fast as Pico, but she also has progressed
quickly in the sport. She was already in the UFC after five pro
fights, and she was promoted prominently every step of the way.
While it’s hard to argue she was rushed, her overall MMA game has
not progressed as far as needed to reach the top of her division.
That was apparent in her close loss to Yan.
The strongest asset either fighter had in the UFC main event was
clearly Dern’s jiu-jitsu. When Dern got Yan down, she dominated in
the most one-sided action of the fight. Yan managed to survive
without being submitted, but it was all Dern in the second and
fifth rounds. The problem for Dern was that her wrestling wasn’t
strong enough to get Yan down in the other rounds, and her striking
wasn’t strong enough to steal one of the other frames. As a result,
Dern lost the fight despite having by far the most effective
moments.
Dern’s predicament demonstrates a fact that sometimes gets
overlooked in MMA: It’s hard to develop all the necessary skills in
the sport. They’re different skillsets, and being good at one
doesn’t mean you’re going to be good at others. Dern has known for
years she needs to improve her striking and wrestling in order to
reach the top, and she just hasn’t been able to make it far enough.
It takes time to develop those skills, and if you’re in a fight
with a well-rounded, world-class opponent, your vulnerabilities
will be exploited. Nickal is great in one area and has flashed
potential in others, but those secondary skills will be seriously
tested against ranked UFC opposition.
It’s hard to count out Nickal even if he ends up in the deep end
early in his UFC career. He seems better suited to make the jump
than just about anyone to come along in a long while. However,
there were prominent examples the same week he officially earned
his UFC contract of why patience is needed in MMA. He would be wise
to take them into account before pushing too hard to be fighting
the best of the best.