The
Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will
go about fulfilling part of its contractual obligations with this
UFC Fight Night offering at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Exactly two
competitors ranked inside the Top 15 of their division will face
off, and that comes in the main attraction. Other than one outlier,
every match of the dozen set to play out features odds closer than
-250, and there are multiple coinflips scattered throughout the
lineup. Join the
UFC Fight Night 223 edition of Prime Picks, where we traverse
its shallow waters for a clear striker-versus-grappler affair, make
a leap of faith for an aging contender and roll the dice on a New
Englander to pick up a rare victory in the Octagon.
In the majority of matches where grappling specialists square off
against opponents who have their best success on the feet, the
grapplers tends to have the advantage as long as they have the
ability to move the fight where they want it. In the case of this
UFC Fight Night 223 headliner, Dern’s takedown success percentage
may sound comedically inept at
11%.
However, when coupled with the fact it only takes one, it makes it
a much more dangerous proposition. Dern is far from a
Merab
Dvalishvili-type wrestler with a lather-rinse-repeat strategy
of needing 11 takedowns to stall out opponents and wear them out.
Instead, the 2015 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World
Championships gold medalist is dangerous as soon as the two even
lock hands on one another, let alone move to a more horizontal
position. While
Angela Hill
has the wherewithal to hang with Dern on the mat and attempt to
escape, she will have to be perfect for 25 full minutes. On the
other hand, Dern has to snag her just once in this smaller cage,
and it could be over. This makes Dern the rightful and still
valuable favorite.
Dern’s 11% success rate underlies the fact that she has landed just
five
total takedowns inside the Octagon officially, all while
recording four submissions. So singularly obsessed to bring the
fight into her world, Dern actively pulls guard or throws her
opponent into intentionally advantageous situations so she can
start pursuing sweeps and reversals. Stark are the numbers on
paper, as Dern has never even accidentally pulled off a knockout,
even by injury or getting a dominant position and pounding someone
out. Meanwhile, Hill has officially attempted just
two
submissions in her 22 outings in the UFC, and she has never
pulled one off as a pro. It will behoove Hill to treat the floor
like lava, and she will need to stay away from grappling exchanges
where she cannot just land one knee and get out. Prolonged tie-ups
may lead to the Alliance MMA rep hitting her back, which would the
worst thing for her.
In seemingly every Dern matchup, she is able to take control for at
least one round and most likely take her opponent’s back. Ladies
like
Marina
Rodriguez,
Tecia
Torres and
Xiaonan Yan
all fell victim to Dern’s dangerous attack, which tends to come in
the second round. However, all three survived the danger by hanging
on, fighting smart and not wrenching themselves out only to learn
it was a trap all along. Hill’s last submission loss came in early
2019, when
Randa
Markos easily hit a body lock takedown and did work until the
armbar materialized. Four years and 13 fights have transpired since
then, although the number of pure submission threats Hill has
fought in that stretch is practically limited to
Virna
Jandiroba. Although Jandiroba handled Hill, she could not land
the submission. With five rounds to work and those extra 10 minutes
to pull something off, the match is there for the taking for Dern,
as long as she does not gas early. She can win either by tapout or
by banking at least three grappling-heavy rounds where the bell
rings with her either having achieved full mount or having
progressed to Hill’s back. Should a bettor’s confidence lie in Hill
because of the length of the match or because of her speed and
timing—she is 38 in a division where very few fighters make it to
that age—then her winning on the scorecards at +225 may be the best
alternate line.
DOUBLE PLAY (-115)
Emily
Ducote-Lupita
Godinez Goes to Decision (-300)
Karolina
Kowalkiewicz-Vanessa
Demopoulos Goes to Decision (-250)
In every edition of Prime Picks, we try to shine some light on an
underdog or, at the very least, a pick’em fighter who merits some
attention. At this event, those seem to be few and far between:
Andre
Fialho is a technical striker who has shown recent issues with
his chin,
Maheshate
Hayisaer could get his chin checked by
Viacheslav
Borshchev,
Ilir Latifi
exhibits next to no offense lately and
Victoria
Leonardo as a +600-700 underdog may not even get a flier
callout given her reasonable path to victory or lack thereof.
Instead, we have to mash together two fight results in order to get
that nearly even money, and that two-leg parlay still does not
quite reach that mark. It is close enough, and based on the fight
histories of the four women involved in the two bouts, a pair of
decisions lumped together for one line is worth it.
The highest finish rate of any of the four sits at 58%, with Ducote
getting it done inside the distance in seven of her 12 victories.
Her recent knockouts have been against solid but far smaller
opposition in
Danielle
Taylor and
Alesha
Zappitella, and Godinez has not proven to be susceptible to
getting tagged like that yet. It does not hurt that Godinez has
heard the final bell after 10 of her 12 professional outings,
including six of seven UFC fights. In the other bout, it is also
about playing the odds. If Kowalkiewicz-Demopoulos ends by
stoppage, what is the most likely outcome? Demopoulos levering a
submission could be it, considering an aging
Jessica
Penne landed an armbar on Kowalkiewicz not long ago. While the
tricks of “Lil Monster” have worked against earlier opponents, they
may not be as effective on the larger stage against someone of the
caliber of a former title challenger in Kowalkiewicz. Thirty
minutes of combat are most likely for the two tilts at 120 pounds
and strawweight, and the horns blaring at their ends will sound
like cash registers when it is all over.
At any given time,
Michael
Johnson could put on a performance worthy of Top 10-caliber
status. His problem is maintaining that momentum. When he hangs up
his gloves one day, the resume of “The Menace” will be one of
head-scratching majesty. He has prevailed against
Dustin
Poirier,
Tony
Ferguson and
Edson
Barboza, among others, while opponents like
Paul Sass,
Darren
Elkins and
Clay Guida
have bamboozled him. For the first time in two years, Johnson has
the chance to put himself on a winning streak, as he previously
topped Mark Diakiese in December on the scorecards. A razor-close
defeat to
Jamie
Mullarkey potentially came due to a lack of volume when it
mattered most, and this waiting version of Johnson loses fights he
should and could win. While Ferreira has been struggling and might
have passed the cliff that is the age barrier of 36 or 37, his
well-rounded game and ample time to clear his head might give him
the edge. Given that Johnson still makes lapses in judgement that
give opponents the edge, a favored Ferreira may be the right
pick.
The confidence in the Brazilian by way of South Texas is not
sky-high, as he has not had his hand raised since January 2020. A
trio of setbacks in 2021, all to top-tier opponents, made him take
some time to reassess his fighting future. After just over 18
months away, Ferreira is returning to try to at least get one more
win before calling it a career. The maddeningly inconsistent
Johnson may be the perfect person for him, because he can bring it
and really put the screws to Ferreira in a hurry. On the other
side, “The Menace” gets in his own head, as evidenced by his
deflating submission defeat to
Thiago
Moises in 2020; after trouncing Moises in the first round, he
succumbed to an early leg lock. The value in Ferreira might cap
around -150 given his absence and struggles, compared to Johnson’s
relative successes. With Johnson’s comeback around +125 to +130,
that is a suitable option if all faith is lost in Ferreira.
If you are looking for a play this week in the plus-money
territory, digging a little deeper to suggest that Fiore wins this
matchup by stoppage at +185 may be the way to go. The New Hampshire
native, with a full training camp under his belt, will be squaring
off against the UFC’s wunderkind,
Chase
Hooper. The youngster known as “The Dream” is moving up to
lightweight, as his gangly 6-foot-1 frame with a decent-enough
reach may be growing into his final form. While Hooper is just 23
years of age, he already seems to have settled into a known
quantity, with positively ghastly striking and a need to get the
fight to the ground so he can do work. His takedown rate may be
higher than Dern’s aforementioned 11%, but he will need to ground
Fiore, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and do what several men,
including
Jay Ellis
(twice), could not. Fiore, a grappler himself, can hit surprisingly
hard, and this is becoming evident it is Hooper’s weakness. Should
the New England Cartel product keep things on the feet and
advertise the price of admission, it is his to win going away.
Fiore did find out quickly and repeatedly over the course of 15
minutes that life in the UFC was a far cry from the days of Combat
Zone, where he could toss around men with many more losses than
wins with ease.
Mateusz
Rebecki, far from the top echelon of the 155-pound category,
dragged him back to earth and pounded away for three rounds. Much
of that came from Rebecki’s raw power, as he could suddenly blitz
into action and slam Fiore to the floor with a double-leg takedown.
Hooper does not have that strength at his disposal and instead is
slicker and much more of an opportunist. It remains to be seen how
Hooper adjusts to the new weight class, where everyone hits that
much harder and presents just a bit stronger. If Fiore remains
confident, not only in his hands but in his ability to stay out of
danger should things hit the canvas, he can overcome Hooper and do
some damage. Should Hooper ground him early and often, however, it
could become a slog where both fighters play offense on the floor
but neither can go anywhere. With the crushing
Steve
Garcia loss in such recent memory, Hooper may think twice about
getting hit, and Fiore can take advantage of that.