Why a top free agent like Cody Bellinger might consider a shorter-term contract as spring approaches

For what it’s worth, Bellinger could look to set his sights on a shorter-term contract to try and add some value for a future free agent window.

He is just one season removed from being completely below average at the plate for three seasons and teams may not be willing to offer up a long-term deal without some more at-bats to see whether the 2023 season was a fluke or not. Ball clubs know what he is capable of (again, a former MVP) but one season of solid at-bats in the NL Central might not be enough to sway teams to commit to a long-term deal for the former Dodger.

While this past campaign may have seemed like the “prove-it” year, should Bellinger sign another contract in the short term and continue to replicate the same success from last season, he would have more leverage to try and secure a guaranteed deal while still in the prime years of his career at just 29 years old next winter.

In this scenario, a team looking to do a one/two-year deal with an additional player option may suit both club and player the best, as Bellinger gets a chance to bet on himself for another solid campaign but adds another year of stability through the option should he become injured or struggle to replicate his 2023 success. It’s not the long-term deal he and Boras likely want right now but it sets himself up for more bargaining power moving forward, especially since he won’t be tied to draft pick compensation or the qualifying offer during future free agency years.

There are obvious cons with the short-term deal, in that if he struggles at the plate, he sits tough for a long-term deal in his next free agent window, which could arguably be next year. This would be the worst-case scenario for Bellinger, as it would prove more that the 2023 season was more of a one-off versus the norm he was looking to set. This would pivot more for Bellinger to secure some sort of option for additional years in the short-term scenario in the event he does struggle to produce in the batter’s box and has some form of additional contract security, even if it is not 5-8 years worth.

As well, this offseason is considered pretty weak outside of a few top names, so the outfielder may be in tough to secure more money next winter (assuming he is a free agent again in this scenario) when he has to contend with potential position player free agents such as Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Paul Goldschmidt. He would be one of the higher-rated outfielders outside of Soto, but those looking for a first baseman or a DH-type bat could look elsewhere, given the current free agent pool, unless Bellinger replicates the 2023 success.

The biggest difference maker in this scenario is Bellinger’s representation, as there is a chance that Boras is ok to wait out the market into Spring Training and is still able to lock down a long-term deal for his client.

That’s where the give-and-take aspect of this whole scenario plays out, in that either the player or the team is going to cave first, and one could easily argue that the Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays could fold to increased years/demand to add Bellinger. The Cubs have the slight advantage of not having to contend with lost draft picks for singing the outfielder and the Jays may even only consider a long-term contract given their stance regarding the CBT and the penalties with signing over the allotted tiers but again, someone will have to cave eventually if either team or player wants their way.

Bellinger and the contract standoff

Looking ahead, there is an argument to be made for Bellinger to potentially bet on himself for a short-term deal to try and cash in in a future offseason window but also a point to be made for the seven-year veteran to continue holding out right now for a deal that guarantees long-term security. He has the right representation to argue for the latter argument, but at some point, if teams are starting to play Spring Training games and Bellinger continues to sit on the sidelines, there could be a breaking point on the player side.