Twins ace could be on shelf deep into June due to injury

Minnesota Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI today to determine the nature of an elbow impingement and the results are not promising.  Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Dan Hayes of The Athletic) that Mahle will be shut down for the next four weeks due to both a posterior impingement and a flexor pronator strain.

Assuming Mahle emerges from that shutdown period in good condition, it will likely take a couple of weeks for him to rehab and rebuild his strength back up to regular levels -- meaning that the Twins might be without one of their rotation stalwarts until late June.  Kenta Maeda also went to the 15-day injured list earlier in the week. While Maeda’s strained right triceps issue seems slightly less serious than Mahle's health concern, he could also miss a big portion of May.

The Twins have an off-day on Monday and Mahle’s own IL placement will likely be held off until prior to the team’s game against the White Sox on Tuesday.  Bailey Ober was earlier called up from Triple-A to act as Maeda’s replacement in the rotation and Minnesota will again have to dip into its starter depth with Mahle going down.

The silver lining to the rotation's situation might be that the Twins are better equipped than most teams to withstand injuries to their starters. Louie Varland is on hand at Triple-A and seems the likeliest candidate to be called up in Mahle’s place.  Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick might also be options here. Both are on Minnesota’s 40-man roster.

The injury is a tough setback for Mahle, who looked good in posting a 3.16 ERA over his first five starts (25 2/3 innings) of the season.  The righty’s 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate were both above league average and the latter figure is of particular note given how control has often been an issue for Mahle throughout his six previous MLB seasons.  A .266 BABIP and 80 percent strand rate have contributed to Mahle’s good numbers, but his 3.50 SIERA isn’t too far north of his actual 3.16 ERA.

In the bigger picture, Mahle is a free agent after the season and any kind of lengthy injury layoff could certainly hamper his chances of maximizing his value on his next contract.  It does not help that Mahle missed a big chunk of the 2022 season due to shoulder problems, pitching just 28 1/3 innings after July 2 due to three separate IL trips.  Only time will tell if Mahle will return from this current injury in relatively short order -- and in good form -- but an extended run of health and quality pitching upon his return could line Mahle up for a hefty multi-year deal this winter.