The Twins' bullpen issues are more than just bad luck

With Jax also on the wrong end of a bad call in a loss to the Dodgers earlier this week, the Twins could shrug this off as bad luck with the belief that Jax will turn it around. But that's the same philosophy the Twins have used with Emilio Pagán.

One year ago, it was Pagán who was being victimized by bad luck. The right-hander posted favorable metrics with a 30.7% strikeout rate, a chase rate in the 83rd percentile and a whiff rate in the 84th percentile but hitters held a 9.8% barrel rate and a 44.8 percent hard-hit rate.

This led Rocco Baldelli to use Pagán frequently with hopes that he could figure it out. Those hopes never came to fruition as Pagán allowed 11 home runs, blew nine saves and posted a 5.24 ERA in his first 46 appearances. While he posted a 2.16 ERA in his final 13 appearances, it came as the Twins were fading from contention.

The Twins continued their belief in Pagán by bringing him back this year and while his overall stats have been inflated by a pair of bad outings including Wednesday's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, he's seen a decline in his chase, whiff and strikeout rates this season.

Pagán and Jax aren't the only issues in the Twins bullpen. Jovani Moran's exit velocity allowed (85.6 mph) is in the 93rd percentile and his hard hit rate (26%) is in the 96th percentile among relievers this season but his chase rate in the sixth percentile is producing a 13.4% walk rate.

Caleb Thielbar and Jorge Alcala are currently on the injured list and while Brock Stewart has been a pleasant surprise, he's a 31-year-old journeyman with a career 5.48 ERA.

The Twins can make adjustments by switching Jhoan Duran back into a multi-inning set-up role for Jorge López in the ninth but it creates a logistical problem managing Duran's workload. Even if the Twins decide to dive into the trade market, their checkered history indicates that whatever reliever they acquire will be far from a sure thing.

But whatever the Twins do, they can't chalk their struggles up to bad luck. Last year, the Twins' stubbornness made the division race tighter than it should have been, allowing the Guardians to get hot at the end of the season and win the American League Central.

With the Twins entering Saturday with a 2.5-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for first place in the division, the margin for error is less than it seems, which should create a sense of urgency to finally fix the bullpen.