The 2024 New York Mets: Suprise Or Disaster?

The New York Mets have had an interesting offseason yet again. However, not in the way many expected. The team was considered a World Series contender last year, but that went up in smoke rather quickly, and the Mets never really got going. After a trade deadline that saw them deal away Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, and others, they entered the offseason with a lot of work to do. They fired manager Buck Showalter and replaced him with first-year skipper Carlos Mendoza. The man who made that hire was new general manager David Stearns. Despite the deadline activity and their assurance that 2024 was going to be a revaluation year, some still thought they would spend heavily in free agency. They were in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and offered him over $300 million, but that was about it.  

New York instead opted for low or high-risk, high-reward signings. They signed Luis Severino, Shintaro Fujinami, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jake Diekman, traded for Adrian Houser, and brought back Adam Ottavino. They still haven’t signed a big bat in the middle of that lineup to join Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Francisco Álvarez. Looking at the team, it might be hard-pressed to consider them a serious contender. It’s a far cry from where they were just one or two years ago. 2024 could go one way or the other for the Mets.

The 2024 New York Mets: Suprise Or Disaster?

Reasons For Optimism

Marte & McNeil

The Mets will need rebound seasons out of two key offensive players, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil. There is reason to believe both are in for bounce-back seasons. Marte is healthy and a healthy Marte is a dangerous player. He was very productive from April to August 2022 until an injury cost him the stretch run, and he was recovering from offseason double groin surgery last year. McNeil won a batting title in 2022, coming off a tough 2021. McNeil hitting from all across the field like he’s capable of will add so much to this offense. Plus, Alonso is sure to have a big year as he is set to hit free agency after 2024. 

The Kids

With Ronny Mauricio expected to be out for the season with a torn ACL and no power bat signing yet, New York will look even more to Brett Baty and Mark Vientos to step up. Baty struggled for much of 2023, but Vientos had a strong September by hitting six home runs and 20 hits. Vientos has raw power potential, and his presence could give the Mets reason not to pursue a designated hitter in free agency. With no Mauricio at third base, Baty has yet another opportunity. Baty has proven to hit in the minor leagues but must show he can hit at the big-league level. His defense also needs much improvement at the hot corner. 

High Potential Pitching

The Mets’ starting pitching has made quite the transformation over the last couple of years. Gone are the likes of Scherzer, Verlander, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Bassitt. In are Severino, Houser, Manaea, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Senga is the star of the rotation after having a sensational rookie season, and Quintana had a strong second half of 2023 after missing the first half on the injured list. Severino is coming off a rough season with a 6.65 ERA. However, Severino has proven to be a quality pitcher when healthy, and in 2022, he went 7-3 with a 3.70 ERA and was an All-Star in 2017 and 2018. Houser is an innings eater, and in 2021, he threw 142,1 innings. Manaea struggled for much of the 2023 season but finished strong in his last four starts for San Francisco, pitching to a 2.25 ERA.

There are also pitchers such as Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchessi who are looking for a chance to start. Last year, Megill was sent back down to the minors in June, but he came back and pitched solidly, especially in his last six starts. Megill pitched 35.1 innings with a 2.55 ERA. When Lucchesi was called upon, he produced and pitched to a 2.80 ERA in nine starts. With David Peterson out until the summer due to off-season hip surgery, guys like Megill and Lucchessi might potentially get a chance to be placed in the rotation. 

Reasons For Disaster

The Health Of Marte and Questions Around The Offense 

As talented as Marte is, his durability has always been his Achilles’ heel. Not counting the shortened 2020 season, Marte has played in more than 150 games just once in his career (153 in 2015). It is what it is at this point. When he’s on the field, he gives the Mets a quality bat and a good fielder with a strong arm, but he can’t be relied upon consistently to stay on the field. That may leave someone like D.J. Stewart, who came onto the scene well at the end of 2023, to step up again. From August 15th to October 1st, Stewart batted .261 with 10 home runs, 23 RBIs, and 31 hits. However, Stewart’s surge may prove to be just a good hot streak, as he never showed that anywhere else throughout his career.

Aside from Alonso and Lindor, the Mets need to find the guys who can drive in runs after them. As the leadoff man, Nimmo is the tone setter. Álvarez is the solid third contributor, but there’s always the chance of a sophomore slump. That leaves the health of Marte and McNeil bouncing back, Baty and Vientos contributing, and getting something out of Bader, Stewart, and even Wendle. The free agency pool is thin now that Jorge Soler is heading to the Giants. J.D. Martinez is still available. Someone must step up because Alonso and Lindor can’t do it alone. 

Starting Pitching Problems

Senga enters year two, and just like Álvarez, there’s a chance of a sophomore slump. Teams now have concluded an entire offseason of adjusting to his ghost fork. How Senga adjusts to that will go a long way in year two because the Mets need him to be the ace. Quintana might have found something over the past two seasons after struggling from 2017 to 2021. New York hopes he has recaptured what made him a quality pitcher with the Chicago White Sox, but he’ll be called upon to be a number two in this rotation. Quintana right now is probably a solid three in a rotation at best. Severino’s days as an ace are long gone, and durability has also been problematic for him. Severino hasn’t started over 30 games since 2018. In three of the last four seasons, which includes last year, Manaea’s ERA has been over 5. Then there’s the combination at the five spot of the rotation with Houser, Megill, and Lucchessi.

Stearns opted not to go after players like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in free agency. Both are still on the market. Instead, the Mets opted to play it safe and wait until next year when the market for starting pitchers is stronger. For 2024, however, their rotation is the biggest question mark this year and it may make or break them.

Can They Get To Díaz?

Finally, we get to the bullpen and the much-welcomed return of Edwin Díaz. He missed all of 2023 after a freak knee injury while celebrating Puerto Rico’s win over the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. Now that the Mets closer is back, it’s about getting to the 9th inning. Aside from Diekman and Fujinami, New York also signed Jorge Lopez. They join a bullpen with Díaz, Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, and Phil Bickford. While Raley had a solid 2023, Ottavino, Smith, and Bickford struggled. For Smith, this is probably his last chance to show something to Mets brass, as he’s had multiple chances with very few results. Fujinami is all potential right now by throwing 100 mph. It’s up to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to bring out Fujinami’s full potential. Last year, Diekman struggled in Chicago before thriving in Tampa Bay.

It’s safe to say the bridge to the 9th inning is still under construction. Raley proved he could solidify the 8th inning, and Ottavino would most likely take the 8th on days where Raley isn’t available or if he’s set to close, but the 5th, 6th, and 7th innings need to be figured out. Someone like Ottavino needs to show more of his 2022 form. 

The 2024 Mets season will be…

It’s hard to tell. Nobody really is sure with this team and the way Stearns constructed it. The Mets also have a first-year manager who will go through some hiccups while learning on the job. They could lose well over 90 games and be a National League bottom-feeder. However, if things go right, who’s to say they can’t win 84 games and sneak into the playoffs like last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks? That is what the Mets are at least hoping for. However, it is just that—a lot of hope that things will fall their way with this current roster. Time will tell.