Robbie Ray trade shouldn't stop Giants pursuit of top free agent starters

"Robbie's obviously a big piece for us and fills what we saw as the ideal of a number two starter who had a different style than Logan Webb who complimented him well," Zaidi said. "He’s a power lefty who misses bats and before this injury actually had a long track record of durability."

It's easy to see the potential for the Giants rotation with Ray. While the southpaw will likely be out until the second half of the season as he recovers from UCL surgery, Zaidi pointed to the success the team has had with players in those situations throughout his tenure as a reason for confidence. Reaching the playoffs with a potential four-headed monster rotation of Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb, and Kyle Harrison is exactly the kind of upsetmaker the Giants need. However, it also comes with some obvious risks, and Zaidi seemed to understand that by acknowledging a need to add more starting pitching insurance.

"It's going to probably be an area we continue to look to add by either free agency or trade," he said.

The question facing the Giants now is what caliber of pitcher they still need. They were reportedly a leading candidate for top free agent starter Blake Snell (#6-ranked free agent). Will they remain willing to ink another starter to a nine-figure contract? The answer remains uncertain.

Zaidi describing Ray as the team's number two starter was the strongest hint that the team does not seem to be eyeing another top addition. He later added "the long-term vision is Robbie being a tandem atop the rotation with Logan Webb."

"Knowing that we have Cobb and Ray coming back later in the season, any pitching additions we make from this point on will have to sync up with knowing we’ll have those three guys at the top of the rotation in the second half."

That sure does not sound like Snell.

"Anytime you make a move, it changes your depth chart and rearranges your priorities, and the level of fit of different players… I’m sure you can do the math that based on today’s trade creates more need in some areas and less in others."

Of course, there's reason to take Zaidi's comments with a grain of salt. After all, negotiations remain ongoing. Snell is represented by Scott Boras and has had no obvious suitors outside of the Giants since Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers. However, with Jordan Montgomery expected to sign with a team in the South or East Coast and the Giants in need of a top starter, Boras had immense leverage as well.

If the Giants remain interested in Snell, acquiring Ray made it easier for them to counter Boras' leverage play. The Giants may not have other top end options available in free agency, but they have added a recent Cy Young winner via trade. Now both sides can make a compelling case to the other that they are willing to look elsewhere.

Maybe Zaidi's comments were a smokescreen. Maybe they were the truth. Fans will have the answer by the team's moves in the coming weeks. Regardless, if the team is ready to move forward with Ray set to be their number two in August, they are missing a big opportunity.

It's easy to see the through line between the Ray trade and the Giants decision to sign Carlos Rodón in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason. Both pitchers were power lefties with bigtime upside who had struggled with consistency. San Francisco landed them for at relatively minimal cost because of arm injuries. They both had the opportunity to opt out after one season with the team.

The Giants will be thrilled if Ray's tenure is anything close to as productive as Rodón. However, despite Rodón's success, his signing also came in the offseason with the biggest missed opportunities of Zaidi's tenure.

Coming off a 107-win campaign, the Giants had an incumbent co-ace available in free agency (Kevin Gausman) and multiple solid mid-rotation arms (Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood). Rather than paying the premium for Gausman alongside short-term gambles, they opted to sign four short-term deals. Rodón and Cobb were excellent finds, while DeSclafani and Wood never panned out. It was a missed opportunity to use Rodón's upside as an excuse to make a larger financial investment on another top-caliber pitcher, like Gausman. After all, look at what the Dodgers have done over the past several offseason despite making the playoffs for 11 straight years. Great teams often try and make a strength even better. In 2021-22, the Giants opted to simply aim to breakeven.

Webb, Rodón, and Cobb were an excellent trio atop the team's rotation in 2022, but the back of the rotation floundered as Wood and DeSclafani regressed after career-years. Offense and defense were the Giants primary problems that season, but Gausman's presence would have undeniably made a difference.

Moreover, Rodón was a stopgap. The structure of his contract meant the best-case scenario for the Giants likely had him departing in free agency the following offseason. That's what happened. Even if Gausman would have been slightly superfluous in 2022, his presence would have made it far easier to withstand Rodón's departure last offseason. If the Giants had Gausman in 2023, they almost certainly reach the postseason.

The Giants may not have to ink Snell, although he remains the most straightforward fit, but the potential of their current rotation also comes with a massive amount of risk. Especially when inconsistency has defined Ray his entire career. 

In fact, Ray has completed at least 150 innings in a season with an ERA below 3.70 just twice in 10 MLB seasons. His last full campaign, 2022, saw Ray rack up 212 strikeouts and a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings pitched. ZIPS remains optimistic that he will be effective upon his return, projecting Ray to post a 3.93 ERA in 2024. However, those numbers are notably short of the expectations the Giants need to have for Webb's co-ace if they are going to be serious contenders in the National League.

Ultimately the Giants acquired Ray, and his upside, without parting with an impact player or prospect. It looks like an excellent move on paper. That should not be an excuse to get less aggressive. It's an opportunity to get greedy. 

The Giants should be asking Ray to be a mid-rotation arm when he returns, allowing any elite performance to be a luxury. Otherwise, the Giants will need one of Ray, Cobb, and Harrison to be significantly better in 2024 than they were in 2023. 

Ray is 32 and coming off UCL surgery. Cobb is 36, coming off hip surgery, and has struggled with health throughout his entire career. How much can they reasonably ask of Harrison after he posted a 4.40 ERA in just 102.1 innings this past season between Triple-A and the majors? 

The Giants are nearly $80 million under the luxury tax threshold that would cost them anything other than an overage fee. With a free agent like Snell on the market there just is not a good reason to take that risk. Even if San Francisco's evaluators have concerns about Snell, other less prominent names like Shōta Imanaga or Marcus Stroman would alleviate some pressure as well, albeit with less upside.

In a vacuum, the SF Giants trade for Robbie Ray is the type of high-risk, high-reward move they need to make as they try to return to the playoffs. However, Farhan Zaidi risks repeating previous mistakes if it is the last major addition they make to the starting rotation.