Padres gauging market for key reliever

The Padres are “actively trying to move” right-hander Scott Barlow in trade talks with other teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The arbitration-eligible Barlow is projected to earn $7.1M in 2024, and with Friday’s non-tender deadline looming, the Friars are seeing what they can get for the reliever before having to make a decision on his roster status.

Barlow didn’t make MLBTR’s recent list of non-tender candidates, though it stands to reason that San Diego might consider cutting the 30-year-old if they can’t find an acceptable trade. While losing Barlow for nothing is obviously not an ideal outcome for the team, it would represent some noteworthy savings for a Padres club that is reportedly aiming to get their payroll to around the $200M range in 2024, down from $249M last season. The $7.1M price point could also be high for other teams, yet non-tendering Barlow altogether is still a somewhat unlikely outcome given the probable interest in his services, not to mention the fact that Padres could still shop him after Friday.

This will be Barlow’s third and final trip through the arbitration process before hitting free agency next winter, and the righty’s salaries have been elevated by the saves accumulated when he was the Royals’ closer in 2021-22. Barlow posted a 2.30 ERA, 40 saves (in 50 chances), a 28.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate over 148 2/3 innings in those two seasons, earning a reputation as one of baseball’s more underrated relievers. It also made him a popular trade candidate, though Barlow wasn’t actually dealt until Kansas City sent him to San Diego at the last trade deadline, and a case can be made that the Royals didn’t sell at the high point of Barlow’s value.

Over 38 2/3 innings with K.C. in 2023, Barlow’s ERA spiked to 5.35, in large part due to a walk rate that surged to 12.5%. The downturn cost Barlow his closer’s job, and the Padres’ trade package of pitching prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams is certainly less than what the Royals would’ve received had they moved Barlow last offseason. The move to San Diego seemed to turn Barlow’s fortunes around, as he cut back on the walks and delivered a 3.07 ERA over 29 1/3 frames in a Friars uniform.

All in all, Barlow finished with a 4.37 ERA over 68 total innings in 2023, with a 3.94 SIERA and a pretty impressive overall set of Statcast numbers, except for his mediocre walk rate. Concerns over his control still exist, and Barlow’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.4 mph in 2021 to 93.1 mph in 2023, though his straight four-seamer has become only his third-most prominent pitch over the last two seasons. Still, teams eager for bullpen help could certainly have interest in Barlow’s services, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a trade completed prior to Friday.

If Barlow was moved, of course, it would leave another hole in the Padres’ bullpen. Josh Hader, Nick Martinez and Luis Garcia are all free agents, leaving Robert Suarez as the top closing option and Barlow as the top candidate for set-up work. The Padres could perhaps pivot to exploring only lower-cost options on the reliever market, though that puts extra pressure on the front office to make up those lost innings with some hidden-gem type of acquisitions.