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Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider. Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Playoff picks: Best bets for NLDS Game 1s

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 10/6/23

The National League Division Series will get underway on Saturday, Oct. 7, and both matchups will be must-see television. The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Atlanta Braves for the second straight postseason, and the Los Angeles Dodgers will meet the Arizona Diamondbacks.

With the start of the NLDS closing in, let's take a look at both series and target some bets for both Game 1s.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Saturday, Oct. 7, 6:07 p.m. ET
First five innings under 4.5 runs (FanDuel)

Betting on an under between these two offenses isn't for the faint of heart, but scared money don't make money in this business.

In four starts against the Phillies this season, Braves starter Spencer Strider gave up just seven earned runs in 26 innings of work. He racked up 39 strikeouts over those four starts. As for potential Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, the left-hander gave up only one earned run in his lone start against the Braves this season. He also finished with a 1.23 ERA in five postseason appearances last year.

I'm not taking the full game under because I don't trust these bullpens, but we'll ride the starters with a F5 under.

Spencer Strider over 8.5 Ks (+110 DraftKings)

I've been riding Strider all year in strikeout props, and there's no reason to stop now. The Braves ace has cleared this number in all four of his starts against the Phillies this year, and he's entering this start with plenty of rest.

Strider should be able to go six or seven strong innings on Saturday, and as the best strikeout artist in MLB this year, he should cruise over 8.5 Ks.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Saturday, Oct. 7, 9:20 p.m. ET
Over 8 (+100 DK)

This is a great matchup for both offenses. Seven different Dodgers hitters are batting better than .300 against Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, and the right-hander gave up seven earned runs on 12 hits in his most recent start against L.A.

As for Clayton Kershaw, his postseason struggles are well-documented. The lefty has a career 4.22 ERA in the playoffs, and he's given up 29 home runs in 38 total appearances. Both lineups are clicking at the right time, and they each should have success against starting pitchers they know well.

Max Muncy home run (+300 DK)

This is well worth a shot at +300. Max Muncy has crushed Kelly throughout his career, as he's batting .412 and slugging .618 against the D-backs starter in 34 career at-bats. Oh, and the wind will be blowing straight out to center field at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night.

Let's get a Muncy bomb in Game 1.

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