MLB futures odds, predictions 2024: Baseball best bets, expert picks

Baltimore Orioles Under 91.5 Wins

(ESPN BET)

Charlie DiSturco: I’m willing to zig while everyone is zagging on the Baltimore Orioles.

This team made a statement with the acquisition of Corbin Burnes — it's going all-in. Fresh off a 101-win season, the Orioles' win total is currently listed 10 wins lower at ESPN BET (91.5, -105). I believe that is an inflated number and am willing to fade last season’s darling.

For starters, the injuries have begun to pour in. Kyle Bradish has a partial UCL tear and is trying to avoid surgery. He will begin the year on the injured list. All-Star closer and AL reliever of the year Felix Bautista is scheduled to miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

John Means will begin the year on the IL and Gunnar Henderson (oblique) is nursing an injury himself. It’s starting to already become a laundry list and the preseason has just begun.

The Orioles' starting rotation behind Burnes and second-year pro Grayson Rodriguez is bleak. The bullpen overperformed last season and without Bautista, should negatively regress in a significant way. This is all happening in the hardest division in baseball — where all five teams are projected around 80 wins or more.

When looking at projections across the board, the Orioles sit in the mid-80s. PECOTA has Baltimore at 86.9 wins and FanGraphs and Davenport both have them at 85.

I’m not saying this isn’t a World Series-caliber team, nor am I betting on them to miss the playoffs. But this win total is a tad overinflated given the level of competition in the East and the injuries that have begun to pile up.

Pick: Orioles Under 91.5 Wins (-105 at ESPN BET)

Juan Soto Regular-Season Home Run Leader

+1500 (ESPN BET)

Alex Hinton: Over the last two seasons, nine hitters have hit at least 40 homers in a season, with Kyle Schwarber doing it twice. Juan Soto is not part of that group, but he enters 2024 in a great position to set a career-high in home runs.

With Soto joining the Yankees this offseason following the trade with the Padres, he will play half of his games at Yankee Stadium. While Soto has power to all fields, the short porch in right field makes Yankee Stadium one of the most favorable ballparks for left-handed power hitters. He also joins a division with other hitters ballparks, such as Rogers Centre and Fenway Park.

Soto is one of the most disciplined hitters in the league. He has drawn 100 or more walks in each of the last four full seasons. As a result, Soto loses some chances to hit home runs by drawing walks.

However, Soto will most likely bat second in Aaron Boone’s lineup and in front of Aaron Judge. While Soto will draw his share of walks, the idea of facing Judge with a man or two on base is not very fun for many pitchers. The protection from Judge will give Soto better pitches to hit.

Judge is also a candidate to lead the MLB in home runs. He already led the American League in home runs in his rookie year in 2017 and then led the majors when he hit 62 home runs in 2022. However, Judge has missed time with injuries and said recently that the toe injury he suffered last season will likely be something he has to manage for the rest of his career.

Judge still finished 10th in the MLB in home runs last season, but he was limited to 106 games. Let’s assume Judge does not have any lengthy IL stints this season, but while managing his toe, he plays 140 games. Soto played in every game last season and he has played in at least 151 games in each of the last three years. If Soto plays 20 more games than Judge, that is potentially 60-80 more at-bats he will have more over him. That difference could amount to six to eight home runs and enough to give him an edge in this race.

Additionally, there is value on Soto in this market compared to the AL MVP odds. Judge is the betting favorite to lead the MLB in home runs at +375 on ESPN BET. He is also the favorite for AL MVP at +550 while Soto is +600. For Soto to win MVP over Judge, he will likely need to hit more home runs than him given that Judge is the better defender of the two.

I’ll take the value on Soto here and also in comparison to DraftKings where this line is priced at +900.

Pick: Juan Soto Regular Season Home Run Leader (+1500 at ESPN BET)

Julio Rodriguez AL MVP

+1200 (FanDuel)

Mike Ianniello: Entering his third MLB season, if Julio Rodriguez isn’t considered one of the faces of baseball, he will be after this year. It’s hard to call his 2023 All-Star campaign, which saw him hit 32 home runs with 103 RBI, a disappointment, but I think many people expected even more out of Rodriguez’s sophomore campaign.

After a slow start, Rodriguez was only batting .249 at last season’s All-Star break with a .314 wOBA and 103 wRC+. But he turned it on in the second half of the season, batting .308 with a wOBA of .391 and wRC+ of 156 to end the season. He hit 19 home runs in the second half of the year.

So, what changed? When you look at his batted ball numbers, his HardHit% actually dropped over the second half, and his groundball rate didn’t change much either. His big change was an emphasis on pulling the ball more, increasing his Pull% from 37.1% to 47.9%.

Even with the slow start in 2023, Rodriguez finished fourth in MVP voting. With Shohei Ohtani off to the National League, the AL race is wide open. Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are the two favorites at the top of the MVP odds followed by Yordan Alvarez and Corey Seager.

The pair of teammates could end up sharing the spotlight in New York, and Judge and Alvarez have both missed time in recent years. What sets Rodriguez apart from the others is his combination of power and speed. He is one of just two players in the American League to tally 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year. He was the only player in MLB to be in the 90th percentile in batting, baserunning and fielding run value. The only other players to post a 30-30 season before the age of 23 are Ronald Acuña Jr, Mike Trout and Alex Rodriguez — all former MVP winners.

Rodriguez’s ability to affect the game in all three phases make him a WAR darling. FanGraphs projects him to finish third in the AL in WAR, just 0.4 behind Judge and Soto. Given the way J-Rod ended the 2023 season, if he can maintain a pace even close to that for the entire season, he will win the MVP.

I love getting anything above +1000 for Rodriguez.

Pick: Julio Rodriguez AL MVP (+1200 at FanDuel)

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