Mets showing interest in various starting pitchers

The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.

The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.

That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff is strengthened.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.

If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.

As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.

He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8M this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free-agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.

For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.

Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.

Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.

Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and a 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22M deal this winter.

As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85M contract, but recent reporting suggests he has enough interest to push past $100M. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer-prone in the majors.

If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period ends on Jan. 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.