Is Bobby Abreu a Hall of Famer?

Bobby Abreu was pulled from the starting lineup just 10 minutes ahead of a July 30 doubleheader in 2006 against the Florida Marlins. Hours later, during the 9th inning of game one, the Citizens Bank Park jumbotron announced that the nine-year Phillie and two-time All-Star was headed to the Yankees for a package of young prospects. Abreu stepped out of the dugout, tipped his cap and blew kisses. Fans rose in standing ovation for the man who had often been vilified in his time with the club, but had helped bring the Phillies back to relevancy in the early 2000s.

Abreu’s path to the Phillies followed a particularly odd set of circumstances. Signed by the Astros as a 16-year-old amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 1990, he spent six years as a minor league top prospect before his rookie season in 1997. That offseason, he was selected by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the expansion draft before promptly being dealt to the Phillies later that evening for shortstop Kevin Stocker.

That deal saw 2.5 future WAR sent to Tampa Bay in Stocker, the Phillies received 59.8 future WAR in Abreu.

The right fielder produced immediately upon his arrival to Philadelphia. In 1998, Abreu slashed .312/.409/.497 with 28 defensive runs saved. That line would look quite similar to his career numbers in Philadelphia: .303/.416/.513.

During the bludgeon ball era of the late-90s and early-00s, elite level hitters were held to a higher standard. Abreu’s hitting was relatively weak compared to his contemporaries. 

Since then, analytics have helped statisticians re-value the importance of walks and OBP. WAR and other modern analytics have helped contextualize the picture of what it means to be a well-rounded baseball player.

Prior to his age-30 season Abreu was worth 62 defensive runs. For his career, he stole exactly 400 bases and was caught only 128 times. As his defense and speed began to decline with age, Abreu’s ability to draw a walk kept him a productive right fielder from age-31 to age-37 when he averaged 2.7 WAR a season.

While WAR certainly should not be viewed as the only important stat, it is a good  estimate of the value of a player's career.

Of the 28 Hall of Famers that Baseball-Reference lists as right fielder, the average WAR per career is 70.1, well above Abreu’s 60.2. However, Abreu would not be the first man enshrined in Cooperstown with such a low total.

Players like Vladimir Guerrero, Enos Slaughter, Chuck Klein, and Tony Oliva all had fewer wins above replacement than Abreu, but Guerrero is the only one not inducted by the Veterans Committee. Guerrero did set a precedent though, and it’s not impossible to believe Abreu could be inducted before his 10 years on the ballot are up.

Guerrero had something that Abreu doesn’t, charm.

Hall of Fame voters are people, they take note of slights, perceived wrongdoings, and off-the-field antics perhaps more diligently than any other fan. Personality goes a long way on the Hall of Fame ballot. If you don’t believe it, look at the Hall of Fame numbers for players like Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel, both of whom have lost votes precipitously in recent years.

Guerrero, unlike Abreu, was beloved wherever he went, from Montreal to Los Angeles. He spent eight seasons in Quebec and six on the West Coast. Abreu spent nine years with the Phillies before ending his career as a journeyman, spending little significant time in any one city outside Philadelphia.

Though Abreu was a brilliant player in Philadelphia, he was never beloved by fans. Abreu rarely ran hard to first base, he avoided collisions with the outfield wall, and was insistent on batting third rather than first where his OBP could have been better utilized. Philadelphia loves hard-nosed team players and Abreu didn’t display that outwardly, even if he was one inside the clubhouse.

It’s tough to see Abreu getting the support needed from Philadelphians to win an uphill Cooperstown push.

It makes sense why Abreu was applauded that day in 2006. The Phillies were in the heat of a pennant race that summer, just five games out of the wildcard spot and their first playoff appearance in 13 years.

Trading a potential Hall of Famer for prospects at the deadline should seem a bizarre move for a contending team. But Phillies fans applauded the announcement. They were excited to see Abreu go where his talents would be appreciated.

Nevertheless, the next question arises, what happens if Abreu is inducted into the Hall of Fame? The Phillies tradition, like most other clubs, is to retire the number of any Hall of Fame player. Does Abreu deserve to join the likes of Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Grover Cleveland Alexander, or Richie Ashburn? Only time will tell.

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