How Ronel Blanco’s no-hitter further illustrates Astros’ cheat code

30-year-old Ronel Blanco, making just his eighth career big league start, completely bewildered the Toronto Blue Jays. He tossed all nine scoreless innings, allowing just two walks, becoming just the tenth Dominican-born pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter.

Blanco’s journey has been absolutely incredible, no matter which uniform he may be donning at the moment. But the fact that he plays in Houston means this success story was almost to be expected. The Astros aren’t just the best organization at signing international free agent pitchers–they’ve cracked a code nobody else is even close to solving.

Finding the loophole

Amateur free agent signings, the vast majority of which come from Latin America, are some of the most prodigal talents in all of sports. Whether they grow up in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico or Puerto Rico, the pressure to perform and get signed is intense, especially because MLB organizations want to get their hands on the player as soon as possible. 16 is the most common age at which players get signed, while by 18, they’re largely seen as “older” prospects.

Around 2012, though, when the franchise was in the deepest, darkest stage of its rebuild, the Astros seemingly put two and two together in their heads and realized, “hey, isn’t it possible there might be some 18-to-21-year-olds out there who could get better with the right coaching?”

Over the course of the mid-2010s, Houston signed 21-year-old Framber Valdez for $10,000, 19-year-old Luis Garcia for $20,000 and 19-year-old José Urquidy for $100,000 (still less than the average signing bonus for a tenth-round draft pick. By 2021, those three comprised 3/4 of their starting rotation in the World Series.

Why are the Astros so good at this?

It’s hard to pinpoint how or when Houston began scouting the older prospects in the international amateur pool, but on a case-by-case basis, they seem to have always found something they liked in a player who others discarded because he didn’t have the physical tools.

In 2013, 16-year-old Cristian Javier tried out for Houston and mustered only 86 miles per hour on his fastball. But the team noticed he seemed to be generating a fair amount of swings and misses with it and kept him on their radar. Two years later, when Javier was topping out at 90, the Astros gave him $10,000 to pitch in the Dominican Summer League. In 2022, he was throwing the first six innings of a combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

There’s no secret formula to predicting the future success of these young arms, who are all light years away from being big league ready at the time they ink their deals. There are the kids with the flashiest tools, the Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s of the world, and those players are quickly entered into a bidding war. But otherwise, it’s all a game of conjecture. And whatever country they’ve scouted, whoever they’ve sent to do their evaluations, the Astros have run laps around every other franchise in the scouting department.

Standing out from the pack

That the Astros have become savants in signing amateur free agents is great for winning baseball games, but it made Blanco’s journey to the starting rotation all that much more difficult. He spent last season bussing all over the state of Texas from AAA Sugar Land to Minute Maid, claiming an occasional spot start while continuing to get the bulk of his work in the minors. The big league rotation, meanwhile, was filled with the World Series heroes who’d gotten to Houston the same way he was trying to–through the amateur free agent pool.

In 2024, at age 30, Blanco got the best chance he would have in Spring Training, due to injuries to Justin Verlander and Urquidy. He and J.P. France, who looked to be the candidates for the fourth and fifth slots in the rotation, faced off in their respective final starts of the spring on March 25. Both were also expecting newborn babies at the time.

That Tuesday, Blanco went 4.1 innings and racked up 10 strikeouts against the AAA hitters in the Astros’ organization, which was more than enough for GM Dana Brown and Joe Espada to decide he was ready for the rotation. That same night, Blanco’s wife Yanissa gave birth to their first baby girl. Fast forward a week, and Blanco has already made his young family extremely proud.

The follow-up act

It’s fair now to ask, how the heck is Blanco going to top that first start of 2024? The Astros desperately needed a win, coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, then Blanco turned in one of the best pitching performances in franchise history. It certainly is a tough standard to live up to a second time.

It’s more than clear Blanco has the stuff to stick in the big leagues. His 94-mph average fastball plays up from that number thanks to excellent carry through the zone, while his slider generates a near-43% whiff rate. He just won’t have the element of surprise on the hitters he faces any more after Monday night’s performance.

In addition, Urquidy and Garcia are expected to return at some point this season, meaning Blanco will have to continue to fight for his place in the Astros’ rotation. But if the last eight years have shown anything, it’s that you can never assume Ronel Blanco will fade away into the background. He’s found his opportunity in Houston and he’s not letting go of it anytime soon.

And who will be the next Ronel Blanco in Houston? That, frankly, is the question we all should be asking.