Familiar face heads back to Braves on one-year deal

The Braves announced Thursday that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year, $3M contract. The CAA client will return for a third stint with Atlanta. The Braves’ 40-man roster had multiple open spots, so a corresponding move was unnecessary.

Less than one month after Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the team was not planning to platoon newly acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic in left field, Anthopoulos now tells the Braves beat the opposite: the righty-hitting Duvall will pair with the left-handed Kelenic in left field (X link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).

The plan change is likely attributable to multiple factors, including a presumable drop in Duvall’s asking price and Kelenic’s struggles thus far in spring training. The once-ballyhooed prospect, whom the Braves effectively paid around $26M to acquire (between eating bad contracts and the associated luxury-tax hits), is off to a 2-for-30 start with four walks and seven punchouts this spring. Kelenic has struggled against lefties throughout his still-young career, evidenced by a .189/.255/.311 slash (61 wRC+) and 29.9% strikeout rate against them.

Duvall, 35, has played with five teams in his career but spent more time with Atlanta than any other club. In parts of five prior seasons, he’s batted .224/.285/.464 — numbers that generally align with his career marks. He’s a strikeout-prone slugger whose paltry walk rates lead to low batting averages and poor OBP marks, but Duvall offsets those flaws with plus power and typically plus defensive grades in the outfield corners. Though he’ll be in a platoon role in this latest Braves stint, he has roughly even splits in his career: .232/.301/.469 (101 wRC+) versus left-handed pitching, .232/.287/.473 (97 wRC+) against right-handers.

Duvall spent the 2023 season with the Red Sox and was the game’s hottest hitter for the first ten days before fracturing his wrist on a diving attempt in the outfield. He missed exactly two months and returned to post .223/.273/.474 slash that’s right in line with his career marks. Duvall swatted 21 homers in just 353 plate appearances with Boston — the best power output of his career on a rate basis — but also fanned in more than 31% of his plate appearances for a third consecutive season.

The Sox surprised many onlookers when they signed Duvall to serve as their primary center fielder and defensive metrics were down on his performance there. It’s reasonable to expect a bounceback in a less demanding and more familiar left-field setting, where Duvall has logged more than 68% of his career innings.

Despite the modest price tag, Duvall was relatively popular in terms of the number of teams showing interest in him this winter. The Red Sox, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Padres and D-backs were just some of the clubs connected to him, though many went in other directions. Minnesota seemingly preferred a truer backup center fielder and acquired Manuel Margot. Arizona took a more prototypical lefty masher in Randal Grichuk. San Diego was connected to Duvall as recently as Monday, but it’s possible Duvall simply preferred to return to the organization he knows best. Given his history with the club and the fact that the Braves are one of the largest postseason favorites in the entire sport, it’d be hard to blame him.

Because the Braves are already well into the second tier of luxury-tax penalization and are a second-year offender of the CBT, they’ll be taxed at a 42% clip on Duvall’s signing. That comes to a modest $1.26M slap on the wrist and brings the total acquisition cost on Duvall to $4.26M. Per RosterResource, the Braves are now up to just over $273M in luxury obligations. If they cross the $277M mark, they’ll be taxed at a 72.5% rate on subsequent additions and see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by ten spots.