Could David Fletcher potentially supplant Orlando Arcia as the starting shortstop?

Most shortstops don't stick at shortstop into their late 20s without a decent glove, and Arcia's got one. On the 2023 season, Arcia graded out at +5 Outs Above Average, per MLB Statcast. His range was within the top 12% in MLB, and his average throw of 86.9 mph was 18th out of 57 shortstops on the leaderboard. 

Among MLB shortstops, Arcia's +5 OAA was 12th, with former Braves SS Dansby Swanson taking the top spot at +20 OAA. 

Arcia's power, too, is notable - despite below-average exit velocity (88.2 average, 28th percentile) and barrel rates (6.9%, 35th percentile), his 17 homers was 13th amongst players that played at least 80% of their games at short in 2023. 

But the underlying metrics behind his performance, both offensively and defensively, aren't that promising for sustained success for Arcia. His .264 batting average and .420 slugging both dramatically overperformed his expected production, per Statcast, with typical performance after those inputs coming in at an .234 average and .398 slugging, both below average marks. 

And defensively, most of Arcia's success can be attributed to making routine plays and his range. He only added 1% of success rate* versus his expected, coming in at 75% versus an estimated success rate of 74%. Arcia's OAA is higher than you'd think because it's a range-based stat, and he had 88th percentile range despite relatively low sprint speed (25.9 ft/sec, 16th percentile).

*Success Rate, essentially, is "did you make the plays you should make?" Each play is considered likely or unlikely to be made, based on where the fielder is standing at contact and the measured direction and velocity of the batted ball.

David Fletcher, however, is a talented defender with great contact but a lack of power

Fletcher, however, is a different type of player. Power's very much not part of his game, with both his 16 career home runs (in over 2,000 career at-bats) and his 11th percentile arm strength showing that finesse is the name of the game. 

The defense, however, is real, with Fletcher's full season in 2021 seeing him come in as an 86th percentile defender via OAA and his range (95th percentile) offsetting the lack of arm strength. 

(In 2022, both the range, in the 95th percentile, and overall OAA were good, as well, but 2023 didn't have enough MLB plays to either qualify him for the leaderboard or provide a statistically significant sample.)

Offensively, Fletcher's greatest asset has been his contact ability. He holds a career strikeout rate of only 9.5% (versus an MLB average of 22.1% in that span). For context, Arcia's strikeout rate last season was 19.1%, just below his career average.

Even in the minors last season, Fletcher only struck out 6.3% of the time, going .331/.382/.428 in 85 games with Salt Lake. 

Interestingly, if you look at Fletcher's last full season in the field (2021) and Arcia's year last season, they both collected 42 extra base hits, with the difference being that Arcia had 17 homers and Fletcher having only two. 

So what's the likelihood of Fletcher supplanting Arcia in the starting lineup? 

Probably not that great, barring either an injury or some sort of complete collapse by Arcia. While his range and contact ability isn't as good as Fletcher's, Arcia has the arm and the power potential that makes him a more appealing option if there's any sort of development left and a floor that isn't that much lower than where Fletcher's is right now.  

No, this feels like a high-level backup plan at both infield spots, where you've seen both both Arcia (wrist, hamstring) and Ozzie Albies (foot, wrist) miss time in the last few seasons.

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