Atlanta Braves Almost Didn't Land Sean Murphy

The A's big trade piece last offseason, and the final major piece of their latest teardown, Sean Murphy, was traded to the Atlanta Braves in what ended up being a three-team deal with the Milwaukee Brewers also mixed in. 

The Braves got Murphy. Milwaukee received catcher William Contreras and minor league reliever Justin Yeager from Atlanta, and Joel Payamps from Oakland. The A's received Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee, and Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas, and Manny Piña from the Braves. 

In terms of total WAR from the deal, Atlanta totaled 4.2 on FanGraphs with Murphy having another solid year behind the dish. His WAR total fell off a little from the 5-win season he had the year before, but he also played in 40 fewer games, splitting time behind the plate with Travis d'Arnaud. 

The Brewers got similar production from Contreras, who put up a 5.4-win season with Milwaukee in 141 games, and his bat was right in line with Atlanta's new catcher. Payamps added another 1.2 wins and helped solidify the Brewer bullpen, giving them a total of 6.6 WAR from this deal in 2023. 

The A's are banking on development, but the early returns haven't been the best. Piña spent most of the season on the IL, getting into just four games before the A's released him in August. Salinas is still in the minor leagues but has showed flashes of his potential. Muller got the nod on Opening Day, but his command was spotty and he finished the year with a 7.60 ERA and -0.7 WAR. Tarnok was also hurt a decent amount this past season and got into just five games with Oakland, posting a 4.91 ERA and -0.3 WAR before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. 

Ruiz set the AL rookie record for stolen bases with 67 swipes and hit .365 with runners in scoring position. He hit .254 overall in his rookie season with a .309 on-base percentage, and finished the year with an 86 wRC+ (100 is league average) and accumulated 1.2 WAR. 

Combined the A's finished with 0.2 WAR from the Sean Murphy trade in the first season, so right now it looks lopsided, but there is room for growth from the young players on the A's which could close some of that gap in the coming years. 

However, there was a chance that this deal never went down, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic mentioned recently. Instead, the A's and San Francisco Giants were close to their own deal for Murphy. "There was just one significant trade last winter — the deal that sent catcher Sean Murphy from the A’s to the Braves — and the Giants were involved to the end of those talks. They were willing to trade Luciano to Oakland but the A’s insisted on top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison."

It's unclear if the A's wanted both shortstop Luciano and left-handed pitcher Harrison from the report, or if they wanted Harrison instead of Luciano. The shortstop is the Giants' number two prospect while the lefty is their top prize. Both are 22 years old, and both made their big-league debuts this past season. 

MLB Pipeline describes Luciano as a "power over hit" guy that could end up hitting .270 with 35 homers per season if he makes some adjustments. That's obviously a tantalizing player, but he would also likely need to move off of short to either third base or a corner outfield spot, and he doesn't come with much speed either. That .270/35 homer projection is also his absolute ceiling. He could also be a .220 hitter (he hit .223 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023) with 15-20 bombs. 

Luciano may end up being the better player overall than Ruiz, but the A's speedster seems to fit a skill set they were after in this deal, which was speed. It's also unclear who else would have been included in the deal, or if this was a one-for-one swap they had discussed. Only time will tell if the A's made the right decision in choosing Ruiz over Luciano. 

For now, the Braves are happy with Murphy, the Brewers are delighted with their pair of players, and the A's are just hoping that the deal doesn't look as bad as it does right now in a couple of years.