Assessing the trade candidacy of Orioles OF Anthony Santander

After getting limited big league playing time in 2017 and 2018, Anthony Santander showed signs of breaking out in 2019. Just 24 years old at the time, he hit 20 home runs in 93 games, slashing .261/.297/.476. The lack of walks kept his wRC+ just below league average at 97, but given his youth, power and ability to hit from both sides of the plate, there was a lot to feel good about.

In the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, he took his game up a notch. He improved his walk rate from 4.7% to 6.1%, still below average, but progress nonetheless. His strikeout rate dropped from 21.2% to 15.2%, and he hit 11 home runs in just 37 games, slashing .261/.315/.575 for a wRC+ of 130.

Unfortunately, 2021 was a step backward, with multiple trips to the IL limiting his playing time and production. In 110 games, he still showed his power potential with 18 home runs, but his walk rate dropped to 5.3% and his strikeout rate ticked up to 23.1%. The defensive metrics also largely viewed him as below average, after being near or above in the previous two seasons. He finished the year with a wRC+ of 92 and 0.6 fWAR.

The Orioles are deep in rebuilding mode, having finished below .500 for five straight seasons and last in the AL East for four of those, with their lone step out of the basement being when the Red Sox slipped to just one game behind the O’s in the shortened 2020 campaign. Although the farm system is now well-regarded and has many top prospects nearing MLB readiness, there’s still a long path ahead to competitiveness, as the club finished last year with a record of 52-110, 39 games behind the fourth-place Blue Jays.

Santander has three years of club control left and can be retained by Baltimore through the 2024 season. Although it’s possible the O's are rebuilt by then, it would also make sense for them to entertain trade scenarios. Even if they are capable of contending in the 2024 season, Santander will be in his final year of control and turn 30 in October of that year. For a club clearly prioritizing the long term, it would be logical to consider a swap that brings back players who can help beyond that three-year timeframe. The O’s also have Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays likely to be occupying two of the three outfield spots on a regular basis, meaning that dealing Santander could free up one slot for the team to give some playing time to other options, such as DJ Stewart, Ryan McKenna, Yusniel Diaz or Kyle Stowers.

The Orioles don’t need to rush into a deal, as Santander isn’t breaking the bank. He qualified for arbitration last year as a Super Two, earning a salary of $2.1M, and has already agreed to a contract of $3.15M for this year. Given his down year in 2021, it makes sense for the club to hang onto him for now, hoping he can get back to the form he showed in 2020 before dealing him at the trade deadline or even next winter.

Santander played a bit of center field in 2019 but is primarily a corner outfielder. Any team that needs help in the outfield but isn’t likely to splurge on an expensive free agent like Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber or Seiya Suzuki could be intrigued, especially if he’s healthy and playing up to his potential this year.

The Rockies are looking for outfielders, having been connected to Bryant and Schwarber this offseason. The Padres need outfield help and might be facing a budget crunch after going over the luxury-tax line last year and still not finding a taker for Eric Hosmer’s contract. The Guardians certainly need outfielders and almost never land high-paid free agents, having never signed a deal larger than $60M. They also have a bundle of young and controllable arms who would surely appeal to a Baltimore team desperate for pitching. The Giants have been connected to Suzuki but are apparently looking to avoid big free-agent expenditures and could pivot to other options if they’re outbid. The Phillies have Bryce Harper in right but could use upgrades in center and left. Trading for someone like Santander could allow them to spend more on other areas, such as the infield and bullpen. White Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Braves could also make sense, as well as a handful of other teams, depending on what other transactions take place in the coming months. There’s also the possibility of further suitors emerging as the season progresses, if injuries create a need on a team that isn’t an obvious fit at the moment.