Tom Hoge rates out extremely well for this golf course because of his deadly accurate iron play. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golf best bets: Long shots to target for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 3/5/24

The year of the long shots continued last week with Austin Ekroat winning the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at 125/1 odds. Through nine events this season, Jake Knapp (40/1) is the lowest-priced player to win on the PGA Tour.

This could be the week the favorites strike back, as the best players on Tour all return for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. That won't stop us from sprinkling some cash on a few long shots, though. Here are two higher-priced players we're targeting with outright and finishing position bets this week.

Tom Hoge (+9000 FanDuel)

Tom Hoge rates out extremely well for this golf course because of his deadly accurate iron play. He's gained strokes with his irons in 11 straight starts, and he led the field in strokes gained on approach at The Genesis Invitational en route to an eighth-place finish. The 34-year-old also ranks sixth on the PGA Tour this season in proximity from 200-plus yards, which will be crucial on a golf course with four long par 3s.

Hoge can struggle on and around the greens, but he's gained strokes from putting in six straight starts. As long as he stays out of trouble off the tee and doesn't bleed strokes around the greens, Hoge will be set up for another strong finish this week.

Top-20 finish: +210

Kurt Kitayama (+9000 FD)

Kurt Kitayama seems to be flying under the radar this week, and we can't understand why. All he did last year was outduel Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay to win in his API debut. Bay Hill isn't easy to figure out on your first try, but Kitayama fits this course perfectly.

What are the keys to conquering Bay Hill? For one, it's important to stay out of the water and avoid big numbers. Well, Kitayama ranks 10th on Tour in bogey avoidance. As mentioned above, you need to be solid with your long irons because of all the long approach shots that arise. Kitayama ranks 23rd in proximity from 200-plus yards. Finally, you need to take advantage of the four par 5s. Kitayama has recorded birdie or better on 60 percent of the par 5s he's played this year.

The American has the skill to go back-to-back this week.

Top-20 finish: +220

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