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J.T. Poston. David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

Golf best bets: 3 outright picks for the Sony Open

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 1/9/24

Chris Kirk kicked off the 2024 PGA Tour season with an impressive win at The Sentry, and we'll island hop from Maui to Oahu this week for the second leg of the Hawaii double at the Sony Open. Although it's also in Hawaii, Waialae Country Club is a much different test than the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Instead of wide, sweeping fairways and large greens, Waialae features tight tee shots, more tree trouble and smaller targets for approach shots.

Precise ball-strikers who thrive on shorter, tighter courses fit the mold this week, so that's who we're targeting with our three outright bets for the Sony Open.

J.T. Poston (+3300 FanDuel)

J.T. Poston is quietly putting together a stellar stretch of golf that dates back to July. Over his last 10 starts, the Postman has six top-seven finishes and no missed cuts. He's been the best putter on the PGA Tour over that stretch, and he's also on the hottest iron streak of his career.

Approach play is paramount at Waialae, and Poston has gained strokes on approach in nine straight starts. The American is coming off a T5 finish at The Sentry in which he gained strokes in all four categories (off the tee, approaching the green, around the green and putting) for the first time since May. A win is coming soon for the scorching hot Poston.

Lucas Glover (+5500 FD)

Speaking of hot approach players, Lucas Glover deadly accurate with his irons for the last 10 months. The 44-year-old has gained strokes on approach in 17 of his last 18 recorded starts. At The Sentry last week, Glover led the field in SG: approach and ranked fourth in SG: tee to green. He only finished a disappointing 29th because he ranked 58th in the 59-man field in SG: putting.

When Glover catches fire with the flatstick, he either wins or comes extremely close. In the last five tournaments in which he gained strokes on the greens, Glover won twice and finished T4, T6 and solo 12th in the other three. All we need is a spike putting week for Glover to contend for a win.

Hayden Buckley (+20000 FD)

Over the years, Waialae Country Club has been a golf course that allows for repeated success by the same players. According to Data Golf, Waialae ranks second on the PGA Tour in course history and experience predicting success. The only course that ranks above Waialae in that metric? Augusta National.

That leads us to Hayden Buckley, who ranks No. 1 in the field (by a wide margin) in true strokes gained at the Sony Open. Buckley has finished solo second and T12 in two trips to Waialae, and he was two holes away from winning the tournament last year before Si Woo Kim finished birdie-birdie to steal the trophy from his grasp.

Buckley's recent form isn't encouraging, but he clearly loves the layout at Waialae more than any other venue on the PGA Tour schedule. At 200/1, he's well worth a sprinkle.

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