2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational begins on Thursday, March 7, at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Bay Hill has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1979 and is one of the most iconic venues in the United States.

With a whopping $20 million prize pool on the line for the Tour's fourth of eight 'Signature Events' on the 2024 schedule, a star-studded 70-player field is on tap at Bay Hill this week. World No. 1 and 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler, 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, and Sam Burns all are teeing it up at one of the most challenging non-major tracks on the PGA Tour. Tony Finau is the lone player ranked in the top 55 of the Official World Golf Ranking who isn't playing this week.

Last time, Kurt Kitayama fended off Rory McIlroy, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and Patrick Cantlay on Sunday to record his first career PGA Tour victory. Kitayama avoided disaster after carding a triple-bogey at the 9th hole in his final round by shooting 1-under 35 on the back nine to win by one stroke over McIlroy and English. A clutch birdie at the par-3 17th vaulted Kitayama to the top of the leaderboard, and he followed that up with a spectacular 47-foot lag putt on the 18th to record a par and secure his title.

THE COURSE

Bay Hill (par 72) stretches 7,466 yards and features thick three-inch Bermuda rough, nine holes with water hazards, 84 greenside and fairway bunkers, and lightning-quick Bermudagrass green complexes. While the PGA Tour cupcaked PGA National last week for the Cognizant Classic, Bay Hill has ranked as one of the most difficult par-72s in the past five years. The winning score has only eclipsed 10-under once (Bryson DeChambeau won at 11-under in 2021) since 2020.

The layout at Bay Hill is similar to a U.S. Open venue, as racking up pars on the par-3s and par-4s feels like a sound strategy to hang in contention. Five of ten par-4s play over 450 yards, while three of four par-3s also play longer than 215 yards. Players will frequently hit long irons into these greens because of the course's length, with the average approach shot coming from over 175 yards. Making birdies and eagles on the par-5s will go a long way to keeping up with the scoring, and it's crucial to take advantage of those four opportunities in all four rounds.

For a complete breakdown of Bay Hill, check out my course preview column from Monday!

FAVORITE BETS

Ludvig Aberg (+2300 DraftKings Boost)

Aberg got off to a sluggish start (for his standards) to the new season after recording his maiden PGA Tour win in the FedExCupFall, placing T47 at The Sentry and T30 at the Sony Open. However, the young Swede has quickly shifted into gear over his past three starts, with a T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open, a solo second at Pebble Beach, and a T19 most recently at The Genesis Invitational. With an unbelievable combination of power and accuracy off the tee, Aberg figures to have an advantage on a treacherous track like Bay Hill.

In his fourth PGA Tour start last year, Aberg recorded his first career top-25 finish on this course and gained over four strokes to the field. Perhaps most notable is that he lost strokes off the tee, which he's only done three times since in 19 measured outings worldwide. One of those three losses occurred last time out at Riviera, which tells me this is a solid bounce-back spot for the 24-year-old rising star.

Aberg has all the tools necessary to contend at Bay Hill, as he ranks first in Total Driving, fifth in Proximity 200-225 Yards, eighth in Bogey Avoidance, eighth in SG: Putting (Bermuda), tenth in Greens in Regulation Percentage, 13th in Driving Distance, 14th in SG: Approach, and 16th in SG: Tee To Green among all players over the past 24 rounds. He also ranks second in SG: Approach over the past 12 rounds, suggesting that his irons are in crispy form heading into this week.

While Aberg has only played Bay Hill once in his young career, we've seen him contend on strenuous courses like Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, and Riviera in his tournament debuts. All parts of his game are rolling currently, and I expect his elite tee-to-green play to have him in the mix come Sunday. It doesn't hurt that he's gained strokes on the greens in the last four starts, either.

Will Zalatoris (+3500 PointsBet)

After an impressive T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open, Zalatoris nearly took down The Genesis Invitational in his next start before floundering down the stretch while Hideki Matsuyama went nuclear. Still, 'Willy Z' finished T2 in just his fourth official PGA Tour start since returning from injury, and he's now gained strokes in all four major categories in back-to-back events heading into this week.

When Zalatoris was contending at seemingly every major championship during the 2022 summer, he was an elite tee-to-green player who could pop for over ten strokes to the field any given week. Well, we've now seen Zalatoris gain 5.8, 6.7, and 10.3 strokes total to the field in his last three tournaments, and he's also been quietly gaining strokes with the putter. Even more encouraging is that he seems to be gaining confidence in his new 'Broomstick' putter each passing week, as he gained 0.9 strokes at The American Express, 1.9 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and 2.3 at The Genesis. A Willy Z that can putt is a scary thought for the rest of the field.

While some of the long-term numbers are a bit wonky due to his tune-up starts earlier in the year, Zalatoris does rank third in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds. The 27-year-old Dallas, Texas native also ranks first in Proximity 200-225 yards, eighth in SG: Difficult Conditions, 12th in SG: Long Courses, and 14th in Proximity 175-200 Yards over the past 24 rounds.

It's been a mixed bag for Zalatoris in his career at Bay Hill, with a T10, T38, and T53 across three starts. But he's gained over five strokes ball striking in each appearance, only to be plagued by the putter. Willy Z hasn't figured out these greens yet, but he's also never attacked them with the Broomstick. I'm willing to take my chances on him at 35/1 odds with his current form from tee to green AND on the putting surfaces. If he putts to field average, he'll be in contention on Sunday.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Corey Conners (+6000 PointsBet)

Conners has yet to pick up a top-20 result thus far in 2024 but has been spectacular from tee to green. He's gained at least four strokes to the field in that category in four of six starts this year but has yet to get it going with the flat stick. Fortunately for the 32-year-old Canadian, his ball-striking prowess should do him favors at Bay Hill, where he's also gained strokes putting in two of the last three years.

Among all players in the field this week, Conners ranks sixth in SG: Approach, sixth in SG: Tee To Green, and ninth in SG: Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds. He also ranks second in Greens in Regulation Percentage, eighth in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 13th in SG: Long Courses, and 14th in Total Driving. Conners is an exquisite first and second-shot player, and he boasts a lofty track record throughout his career in Florida.

Conners has recorded two top-11 finishes at Bay Hill, a solo seventh at THE PLAYERS Championship, and a T16 at the Valspar Championship since the start of 2018. The Florida swing always seems to be a great stretch of his, and he's been in the mix going into the weekend twice on this course.

I'm always skeptical of Conners on the greens, but he did gain over three strokes putting en route to his third-place finish here in 2021. With a winning score likely in (or around) the single digits again this year, I'm willing to gamble on Conners and his abilities on challenging golf courses. Just be field average with the flat stick, my guy!

Sahith Theegala (+7000 FanDuel)

Theegala came so close at the WM Phoenix Open yet again but didn't have his best stuff on Sunday to finish the job. However, he's now amassed two top-five finishes in six starts to begin the 2024 campaign, and I was caught off guard by the 70/1 number listed next to his name on Monday morning. Those odds are too large for a player of his caliber, in my opinion.

The former Pepperdine standout has been hot and cold with his irons so far this season, having gained over one stroke in three tournaments but also losing over two strokes in two. Theegala has been a tough gauge for me in his career, but I've been impressed with his turnaround off the tee over the last six or seven months. That part of his game crippled his chances for a while, but he's now gained in that department in 11 of his last 12 measured starts.

Looking back at Theegala's T14 at Bay Hill last year, he popped for nearly three strokes in the ball-striking categories and gained over four strokes putting. All those numbers are promising for his chances to contend this year, as I believe he's even better from tee to green than he was 12 months ago. The putter has also been on fire for the 26-year-old in 2024, as he's gaining almost two strokes on the greens every week. With 70/1 odds that he puts together the irons and chipping, which he's done a few times already this year, I don't see a world in which I don't bet on my boy Sahith.