Colorado vs. Oregon State score prediction by football analytic model

This weekend brings us another edition in what appears to be the last-ever Pac-12 After Dark as Saturday finds CFP No. 16 ranked Oregon State on the road looking to avoid falling to .500 in conference play against Colorado, which has lost four out of the last five in Prime's debut season since starting 3-0.

• Colorado needs two wins to become bowl eligible
• Buffs are 131st in rushing and 125th in scoring defense
• But they're also No. 6 nationally in passing production
• Beavers are 3-2 in Pac-12 play but 6 combined points from being undefeated
• OSU is 29th in rushing and 17th in scoring offense with 36.4 ppg
• What can we make of the game? Let's check in with SP+ prediction model

Oregon State vs. Colorado predictions

The simulations favor Oregon State to defeat Colorado on the road this weekend.

SP+ estimated that the Beavers will beat the Buffaloes by a projected score of 39 to 22 with a forecasted scoring margin of 16.4 points in the game.

The model expects Oregon State to win the game with 83 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 236-236-12 (50.0%) in straight-up game predictions and 223-252-9 (47.0%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Oregon State is a 13.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 62.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Oregon State at -599 and for Colorado at +375.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oregon State -13.5
• Beavers on the ML at -599
• Bet under 62.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also favor Oregon State to win the game on Saturday.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects Oregon State to win the game in 80.2 percent of its simulations, while the Buffaloes are expected to win in the remaining 19.8 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between the projected scoring margins per game for each team, the computer predicts that Oregon State will beat Colorado by 14.6 points, or by rounding up, by 15 points in the game.

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Oregon State at Colorado game time

When: Sat., Nov. 4
Time: 8 p.m. Mountain
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)