Caitlin Clark WNBA markets are out! Here’s how to bet them

Fever Over/Under 22.5 Wins

25+ at DraftKings | +165 at FanDuel

This is the most straight forward market for Caitlin’s almost certain team. (By the way, it’s pretty hysterical that it’s just like 100 percent, no debate considered, that she’ll be on the Fever. I mean, it’s correct, but it’s also funny considering the Fever haven’t actually drafted her yet.) 

The Fever have been in a multi-season rebuild at this point, with 2023 actually representing a notable step forward from seasons past. Here are the win-loss records since 2017: 9-25, 6-28, 13-21, 6-16, 6-26, 5-31, 13-27. As you can see, they don’t come to this Clark pick without some previous pain. 

That being said, there’s a fair amount to like here. The 5-31 record in 2022 resulted in the top pick last year as well, and an absolute star building block in Aliyah Boston. Boston showed herself to be a megastar in the making in her rookie season, an early advanced stats darling who cruised to Rookie of the Year. Despite win shares being a stat that favors being on a winning team (the way the stat works is literally splitting the team’s wins), here are the only names ahead of Boston by win shares in her rookie season: A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, and Alyssa Thomas. That’s it. That’s the Big Four from Vegas and then the two best non-Vegas players in the league, and then the list ends.

So what held the Fever down? Depth of talent. They had a strong season from Kelsey Mitchell (more on her later), but after that it got ugly, fast. Their third-best player, by win shares, was Erica Wheeler at 1.4. For comparison’s sake, the Wings had eight players at 1.4 win shares or better—basically a full rotation. 

Why do I choose the Wings as a point of comparison? A couple reasons. For one, I think they make for a very interesting comp for the Fever. They’re a young, built-through-the-draft team that won—get this—22 games last season. So in order for the Fever to clear this 22.5 win total, they’d need a win total profile somewhat similar to the 2023 Wings.

At first blush that seems like a massive jump. Again this Fever team was plucky last season, but can they really win 10 more games than last season? If we’re just counting Caitlin, ten wins is basically an MVP level impact in a 40-game WNBA season (A’ja and Stewie were worth 10.4 and 10.3 win shares, respectively, last season, and the case can easily be made that those are compounded a bit by their strong teams around them as well).

However, Boston will be a year older, as will NaLyssa Smith, who fills the box score (19.5 points and 11.6 rebounds per game last season) but has so far shown no ability to have a real impact on winning, at least by most metrics, in her young career. The Fever also brought in Katie Lou Samuelson this offseason, who will provide much needed shooting and fills their roster perfectly, as the Lexie Hull/Victoria Vivians starting duo at the 3 was one of the worst in the league last season.

All that being said, I can’t quite get to 23 wins. Caitlin herself I could see being worth around four wins (we’ll talk through her direct projections in a bit), and I could see around three more wins coming from adding Katie Lou as well as giving Boston and Smith another year in the league. But that still leaves us around three wins short. Is there a world in which Caitlin comes in as a six-win player, Smith takes a mini leap, and it all comes together for a 24-win season? Of course! But my 50th percentile projection has this team notably below the 22.5 number bettors can get at DraftKings. (I have them around 19 wins for their 50th percentile outcome.)

To Make Playoffs (-215 Yes/ +164 No)

We’ll keep this section brief since we just went long and I want to talk about Caitlin specifically a bunch in the next section, but naturally I lean towards the “No” bet here as well. As of now, I have the Fever in a tie for 7th in my projected standings, but outside of the bottom two spots in the league, there’s really a big cluster of teams. Given that I like the under, it’s probably not surprising that I lean miss playoffs, but I prefer targeting the win total over this make/miss market.

MVP (Caitlin Clark +2100)

Let’s lead with this: This is an insane number. As we noted when breaking down the MVP race last season, two things really matter with this award: Team winning and all-around performance (even before advanced stats were as common as they were, votes for this award correlated strongly with win shares).

As noted above, I don’t see the Fever finishing much above .500, and even if things break right, their ceiling is around 25 wins—not enough to be in the race for the award. As for the all-around performance, there’s just no way Clark leaps into the Wilson/Stewart tier in her rookie season. 

Why am I fine saying there’s no way that happens? History.

Finding a historical comp for Clark is definitely challenging, especially because of the relatively short history of the league. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t try. Here are the senior year and then rookie season stats for every lead guard (not a 2/3 type) taken in the top three in the WNBA draft the past 15 years:

The first thing that stands out is just how rare it even is for a guard to be taken in the top three. Since 2010, of the 39 top-three picks, only 10 have been lead guards. The W has long been a league dominated by bigs. Of the 27 MVP Awards given out in league history, the case can be made that it’s never been given to a point guard. The closest are Cynthia Cooper and Diana Taurasi, but both played with guards who were far more pass-centric than their MVP-winning teammates. 

Now, there’s a chance Clark may fill a similar role eventually in the W given her height, as well as the roster construction of the Fever, but that would be losing a lot of her value that comes with her playmaking, so I am truly hoping that is not the case.

The second big takeaway is the far right column. If you weren’t sold on the under before, take a gander at that wasteland of a column. No top rookie guard has come even close to a winning season in their debut season in the W. 

Sheryl Swoopes said some actively incorrect things in her takes about Caitlin, BUT she was right that rookie guards just don’t win in the W. The jump from the college level to the W is absolutely no joke. Where it gets tricky is that literally none of the players above have both the scoring and creating stats that Clark has put up this season in Iowa. There’s a reason she’s become the phenomenon she has, and that she’s breaking a record every other week. That being said, she’s not winning MVP her rookie season. 

Looking over these players’ stats, only Sabrina and Sims really posted even notably good rookie stat lines, and in Ionescu’s case it was because New York was a wasteland where she got to take whatever shot she wanted (MVPs don’t go 2-20). For Sims, it was her and SDS (who jumped from 8.5 PPG in her rookie season to 20.1 in her sophomore campaign) with the full reins to the show, and even then they didn’t sniff .500. 

I’d project Clark to be near that tier of success. Maybe even higher! Something like 18-20 points and 6-7 assists per game (that’s if she takes Wheeler’s spot as the point guard—if she plays on the wing, maybe a few more points and a few less assists). But that will come on not nearly as efficient shooting, and with plenty of turnovers, and all on a team hovering around .500. That’s not winning MVP in a league with Wilson, Stewart, and several other names we’ll look at next week when we dive into who you should be betting in this MVP market.

Other Markets We May See

All that being said, I do think there are some ways to not just be a wet blanket here (although fading stars as hyped as Clark is never a bad idea for bettors—as unfun as it is). One way I’m going to be looking to play Clark next season is her assists. The logo threes get all the attention but Clark is absolutely one of the best passers in the sport, and she is going to be surrounded by SO MUCH more talent than she has right now at Iowa. Only slight offense to Gabby Marshall and the gang, but having Aliyah Boston in the pick and roll; Kelsey Mitchell and Katie Lou Samuelson on the wing; and NaLyssa Smith in the post is going to be like going from eating plain oatmeal every morning to dunking a perfectly glazed Krispy Kreme into a tall, cold glass of milk.

If we get a way to bet Clark to lead the league in assists, we’ll almost certainly have to pay a bit of a Caitlin Tax, but even still, I’m going to give it a look. And certainly on a game by game basis, especially against teams with elite defensive guards, or a tendency to blitz the ball, I’m going to be betting her assist overs if the Fever roll her out as the lead guard. 

Conclusion

We’ve never really seen a player exactly like Clark enter the WNBA, but we do have the historical data to show just how hard the transition to the W is for lead guards. The Fever have a really fun young team, and the long-term future of this franchise literally could not be brighter. (I have blindly said that I would take the over 1.5 rings that Clark and Boston win together in Indiana which is a patently absurd thing to say with Caitlin not even officially on the team yet, but that’s how high I am on them as a combo.) 

But with the Clark hype as is, sadly the best look right now is to fade Clark and the Fever a bit as she adjusts to the new level and the team likely finds itself getting one more decent pick to add to this roster before really taking off.