Backing Aztecs and Mensah is the smart move

We hope you all enjoyed some Opening Day baseball! Just like that, we have three major sports in action at the same time, yet we still have to turn our focus to the college hardwood. Houston plays host to the hoops action this weekend as the men's tournament is down to just four teams. For the first time since seeding was introduced, no team ranked third or better in their region has made the Final Four. It's a unique yet exciting year and one sure to have a strong finish.

Rocking with the favorites for Saturday's Final Four

Regulars will know we have hit and missed throughout this tournament, but one team has been a constant: San Diego State. We took the Aztecs to win the region at +550 prior to the Sweet 16, and the reason for that was their defense. That strength has remained and then some throughout their run here. San Diego State has allowed only 57.3 points per game and has held teams to just 17% from beyond the arc. This presents a problem for FAU, which has done a majority of its damage from three-point land.

The Owls are here in part to their significant rebounding edge, but we wonder if that magic may run out a bit here, as San Diego State sports the size to mitigate the damage on the glass. 6-10 senior Nathan Mensah has 2+ blocks in each game this tournament and has 27 rebounds in four games. His presence should be a difference-maker here, and we're hitching our wagons to the Aztecs and this smothering defense in the first game of the weekend.

Betting: San Diego State -3 (-105 CZR)

We've bet against UConn a few times this March and yes, we have certainly looked foolish in doing so. The Huskies have won each game by at least 15 points, and their most recent 28-point thumping over Gonzaga has convinced us this is UConn's year.

We're nearing a point where there's almost no debate: UConn has been the most dominant college basketball program of the past 25 years. The Huskies have won four titles since 1999, and Duke and North Carolina have each won three. A fifth puts them on a level alone, and seeing their dominance in this tournament has us supremely confident they get there.

The Huskies have the better guards and the better bigs, and KenPom's efficiency rankings have them and Miami on polar opposite ends. We'll gladly bet the Huskies at this price, they're on a run not to be trifled with.

Betting: UConn -5.5 (-109 FD)

Outlier Trend of the Day

Joel Embiid - Points
Joel Embiid has failed to exceed 32.5 points in 16 of his last 18 games at home against top-10 scoring defenses (27.1 points/game average).

Under 32.5 points (-105 MGM)

In the news ...

Julius Randle sprains ankle, to be re-evaluated in two weeks — The Knicks currently sit fifth in the East, four games above the play-in tournament spot with five games to go. It's a good spot to be, but things suddenly look murky. New York's leading scorer Julius Randle suffered a sprained ankle on Wednesday that will keep him on the shelf for at least two weeks. A potential return for Randle figures to be April 13, but with the playoffs starting just two days after that, we're threading a thin needle here. The Knicks are +3500 to win the East, behind Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia and Cleveland.

Adley Rutschman's historic Opening Day sees his MVP odds skyrocket — Orioles second-year catcher Adley Rutschman had himself an Opening Day for the books, going 5-5 with a walk, hitting an HR and driving in four runs. According to the MLB, Rutschman was the first catcher to have such a stat line since at least 1901. Rutschman finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season and will be counted on to be a pivotal piece for Baltimore this year. His MVP odds opened at +2500 before the year but after yesterday's performance, he's flown up the board and now sits at +1400.

Brandon Miller declares for NBA Draft — It hardly comes as a surprise, but star wing Brandon Miller from Alabama has entered the NBA Draft. Miller was one of college basketball's best players this year, drawing comparisons to Paul George. Miller is expected to go either second or third in this year's draft. Victor Wembanyama will no doubt be selected first, evidenced by his odds at -8000 to be the top pick. Miller is +175 to go second, with guard Scoot Henderson the favorite there. Miller is then +140 to go third. 

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll