Oscar long shots that deserve a nomination

2016 was a good year for movies and with the Golden Globes this weekend, it means the Oscars are not far behind. Voting for the nominations begin this week with ballots due back January 13, a very short window for Academy members indeed. For all the films that are worthy to win Oscar gold, there are more than a few worthy outsiders that may not even earn a nomination, much less a statue. Let's take a look at potential long shots in each of the major categories.

2016 had a number of great films, and with the Academy featuring up to 10 nominees, it's a safe bet that films like "Loving," "Lion," "Hell or High Water," "Moonlight," "Manchester by the Sea" and "Hacksaw Ridge" seem like shoe-ins, the real long shot in this category would be Tom Ford's stunning tale of revenge and regret, "Nocturnal Animals."

With only five spaces available, the names on everyone's tongue for Best Director pretty much begin and end with Kenneth Lonergan ("Manchester by the Sea"), Mel Gibson ("Hacksaw Ridge"), Barry Jenkins ("Moonlight"), Damien Chazelle ("La La Land") and Tom Ford ("Nocturnal Animals"). However, the real long shot, the director who could possibly upset the entire apple cart, is David Mackenzie, director of "Hell or High Water," the acclaimed neo-Western which stands a solid chance of claiming Best Picture.

There's extremely stiff competition in the Best Actor category, starting with Denzel Washington's powerful performance in the film adaptation of "Fences," through Viggo Mortensen in "Captain Fantastic," Andrew Garfield in "Hacksaw Ridge," Casey Affleck in "Manchester by the Sea" and Ryan Gosling in "La La Land," but for our money, the real dark horse looks to be Colin Farrell, star of the weirdly sweet dark comedy "The Lobster."

So here's an interesting situation: Even though it's likely that Amy Adams will be nominated for her work in "Arrival," joining likely nominees Ruth Negga ("Loving"), Hailee Steinfeld ("Edge of Seventeen"), Emma Stone ("La La Land") and Isabelle Huppert ("Elle"), the real long shot is Adams being nominated for her role in "Nocturnal Animals," a role that for our money, could be the deepest of her career.

Favorites in this category include Jeff Bridges ("Hell or High Water"), Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight"), Aaron Taylor-Johnson ("Nocturnal Animals"), Dev Patel ("Lion") and Simon Helberg ("Florence Foster Jenkins"), but don't count out Ben Foster, whose performance in "Hell or High Water "is both powerful and understated when compared to his co-star Bridges.

One of the few clearer categories, Best Supporting Actress is led by Viola Davis' stellar performance as a supportive wife whose foundations are cracking in "Fences," followed by presumptive fellow nominees Naomie Harris ("Moonlight"), Nicole Kidman ("Lion"), Octavia Spencer ("Hidden Figures") and Michelle Williams ("Manchester by the Sea"). While Davis will be the likely winner, the real long shot here is Spencer, who could quite possibly be taking home her second Oscar next month.

No matter which film actually wins, Disney looks to be the big champion in this category with both "Zootopia" and "Moana" up for Best Animated Feature, joined by Universal's "Sing," but the long shot and possible surprise winner is the underrated but also beloved (if that's possible) "Kubo and the Two Strings", the tale of a boy with magic powers and a collection of stories.

Without question, the best documentary of the year is the sprawling, eight-hour magnum opus "O.J: Made in America", and despite the concerns of a number of critics, is likely to capture Oscar gold. That said, the field will likely also feature "Gleason," "I Am Not Your Negro," "Cameraperson" and true long shot "The Eagle Huntress," which follows a 13-year-old girl who hopes to be the first female in her family in over a decade to become an eagle hunter.

Of all the great foreign films produced each year, it feels cruel that the Best Picture category only selects five nominees from thousands of foreign language films from across the globe. The best of this year's Foreign Language crop includes France's "Elle" and "Divines," Chile's "Neruda," Germany's "Toni Erdmann" and "The Salesman," a joint production of Iran and France. While "Elle" looks to be the winner here, the long shot of the bunch could be "Neruda," a biographical drama covering the life of poet Pablo Neruda. 

Taylor Sheridan and his script for "Hell or High Water" is the likely winner for Best Original Screenplay, but other projected nominees include Kenneth Lonergan ("Manchester by the Sea"), Matt Ross ("Captain Fantastic"), Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos ("The Lobster") and Damien Chazelle ("La La Land)". If there is a long shot to best Sheridan, it would likely be Ross.

The darling of this category is almost certainly Tom Ford, who adapted Austin Wright's 1993 thriller "Tony and Susan" into "Nocturnal Animals." Ford is joined by presumptive nominees Barry Jenkins ("Moonlight"), Eric Heisserer ("Arrival"), August Wilson ("Fences"), and Luke Davies ("Lion"). If someone is going to stop Ford as a long shot, it would likely be Barry Jenkins.