I have been tracking the state polls in our Forum since August. On Election Eve, we give our final Electoral College Projections. Let's wait and see tomorrow how close we are. I base our projections on polling averages, trends in polling, and early voting numbers.
Based on our data, we projection that President Barack Obama will be reelected with 303 electoral votes and challenger Mitt Romney will capture 235. Here is our Forum Thread depicting which states go to Obama and which states will go to Romney.
For the past two three week, unlike several other projections, we really only had FOUR toss up states. Eventually other projections out there narrowed there toss ups to those four states as well. They were: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Among some other "notable' swing states, we will tell you here how we awarded them and why. We will do in alphabetical order:
Arizona: To Romney. Obama was ever up in one poll, at +2, but we looked at the poll as an outlier, considering no other poll ever had an Obama lead.
Iowa: To Obama. The last 7 battleground polls on Iowa all had Obama leading. When averaging out those seven polls, Obama is up in Iowa +3.4%. Furthermore, Obama has a pretty solid lead in early voting totals.
Michigan: To Obama. A late bloomer in the battlegrounds, it was more of a media pipe dream. Michigan was never in play. Out of the last 7 polls, Obama led in all seven. One of those polls showed a Tie. All others showed an Obama lead ranging from +5 to +8. Averaged together, Obama leads by +5.4%.
Nevada: To Obama. Was a swing state for sometime. However, the state trended to Obama. He led in all five of the latest polls with a lead ranging from 4 to 6 points. Averaged together, Obama leads by 5.0%. Furthermore, Obama has a substantial lead in early voting and 2/3 of all Nevada folks have already voted. HIT CONTINUE TO READ MORE
New Hampshire: To Obama. Another stubborn battleground, Obama began tending there late. In the 8 most recent polls, Obama led in 6, the other two were Tied. Romney did not lead in any of the 8 recent polls. Averaged together, Obama leads by 3.4%.
Pennsylvania: To Obama. It was a late entry in battleground territory. However, the polls have been all over the place. In the six latest polls, Obama leads in five, the other is a tie. Romney did not lead in any. Averaging them together, Obama leads by 4%. PA is always listed as a swing state, but has not voted for a GOP candidate since 1984. Philadelphians are excited and will come out to vote. PA will stay DEM.
Ohio: To Obama. This is the fake battleground. It was a true battleground for sometime, but there is no doubting the trend of the buckeye state. Since November 1, this state was polled a total of 22 times by both GOP and DEM leaning polling firms. Obama led in all 22 polls. Averaging all 22 polls together, Obama has a 4% lead. This state has not been a true battleground for two weeks. Several of the 22 polls had Obama leading by 5 to 8 points.
Wisconsin: To Obama. Not sure this was really ever a swing state. The selection of Paul Ryan was not very helpful in securing Wisconsin. In the 8 most recent polls, Obama led in all 8. He has an average lead of 4.3% with a high of 9%.
That leads us to the four true battlegrounds.
Colorado: To Obama. We decided tonight to go with Obama. It could go either way. It was polled 11 times since 11/1 and Obama led in 6, Romney in 3, and 2 were tied. The latest poll today puts Obama +6. Along with Nevada, it is appearing to be trending Obama late. We call it for Obama.
Florida: To Romney. This state is about dead even as it gets. It has been polled 16 times since 11/1 and Romney has led in 6 polls, Obama has led in 8 polls, and 2 are tied. Romney has a lead in 3 of the 5 Florida polls today. Romney's lead here is under 1%. Could go either way. We will project to Romney.
North Carolina: To Romney. Another true battleground, Romney lead here is under 2%. In the six most recent polls, Romney has slight leads in 3 and 3 are tied. Early voting is an advantage for Obama. However, we still project to Romney.
Virginia: A new battleground state, Obama won this state in 2008 behind strong voting from Northern Virginia and Richmond area. There have been 15 polls since 11/1. Obama leads in 13, Romney leads in 2. However, the state polls are trending Obama, including a poll that showed him up +8%. Overall, averaging 15 polls together, Obama leads 2.4%. We call it for Obama.
In the US Senate, we project the Democrats to pick up one seat. The new majority will be 52 DEMS, 46 GOP, and 2 INDYs. For a break down of those seats, check our Projection Thread.