Scout's view: Is Washington's Michael Penix Jr. a can't-miss first-round pick?

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL. This story was published before Washington's win over Texas in a College Football Playoff semifinal.

It wasn't long ago that I slapped the term "overrated" on Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. But, hey, even scouts are allowed to change their minds — provided their takes are supported by the game film. 

After evaluating three of Penix's games in 2021, nine in 2022 and every snap in 2023 — 25 games total — it's clear he has improved significantly from when I first scouted him. Penix — who transferred in 2021 to Washington after four seasons and 21 games at Indiana — has shot up my draft board from a sixth-rounder to a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He reminds me of another left-handed QB, three-time Pro Bowler QB Mark Brunell, who played 17 seasons in the NFL.

Let's get into the nitty-gritty.

In the 2022 game film, Penix displayed erratic downfield ball placement and poor ball security. In 2023, however, he improved in both areas, but his completion percentage increased modestly, from 65.3% in 2022 to 65.9% this season. (His completion percentage was only 59.4% at Indiana.)

The main improvement I noticed, though, over 2022 is how he went through his progressions much better. Defensive backs, therefore, had less time in 2023 to anticipate a pass, so Penix's pass breakups (PBUs) dropped from an average of 3.56 per game to 1.38, per my charting.

Just like in 2022, however, Penix had accuracy inconsistencies in 2023, which I tie to his unorthodox throwing mechanics and injury history. He often relies on his strong left arm rather than his lower body when throwing. Penix sometimes aims and steers the ball more than depending on traditional footwork to drive the ball. This causes his passes to sail high. 

The reason for this can probably be traced to the two torn ACLs Penix suffered at Indiana — one in 2018 and another in 2020. On social media, I have harped about the importance of NFL teams considering the injury history of Penix, who also suffered season-ending injuries at Indiana to his non-throwing shoulder in 2019 and throwing shoulder in 2021.

ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid, however, opened my eyes to Penix's injury history. 

"Medicals will be a very crucial part of his evaluation," he replied to me on X, "but at what point do we give him credit for staying healthy going on two years now and overcoming those injuries?" 

Touche.

The only other knock I have on Penix is his inconsistency in beating the blitz. Besides that, it was evident in 2023 that he has the skills to justify my first-round grade. Here's what else I like about Penix, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting to LSU QB Jayden Daniels. (Read my scouting report of Daniels here).