Scout's view: Is Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy a first-round draft pick?

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.

Full disclosure: I'm not high on Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy as a draft prospect. In fact, I'd recommend a team trade for New York Jets floundering QB Zach Wilson before drafting the Wolverines' junior, who has yet to declare his intentions for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Before the 2021 draft, I labeled Wilson "a surefire bust." Like McCarthy, he is an inconsistent game-manager type. But Wilson — who has a woeful 57% completion percentage in the NFL — offers more mobility and big-play, off-script capability than McCarthy. 

Nonetheless, over 45% of mainstream draft platforms project McCarthy as a first-round pick. I, on the other hand, have a fifth-round grade on McCarthy, whose game film I have extensive experience evaluating (23 of 27 games the past two seasons). 

Before diving into what he doesn't do well, let's look at McCarthy's positives.

He is a throwback, tough as nails. McCarthy reminds me of the play of his head coach, Jim Harbaugh, who starred at QB at Michigan in 1985 and 1986 under crusty HC Bo Schembechler. McCarthy's best attribute is his athleticism, but he's not a dual-threat QB — he has rushed for only 576 yards on 154 carries (3.7 YPG) in three seasons at Michigan, including 146 yards in 2023.

McCarthy shows decent skills rolling out and throwing, and within the pocket, his best route is the intermediate slant — the "dagger route" — which is also a popular route in the NFL. But other than these aforementioned skills, there's really not much else positive McCarthy offers that would translate well to the NFL.

I think much of McCarthy's "draft buzz" can be traced to Harbaugh, who before the season (per Fox Sports) called him a "once-in-a-generation type of quarterback at Michigan." The key words here are "at Michigan." The reality is the last great QB at Michigan was none other than "The Goat" himself, Tom Brady, way back in 1999. 

Many draft analysts have embraced Harbaugh's statement. ESPN's draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr, however, isn't one of them. Of McCarthy, who he has pegged as the seventh-best QB in the 2024 class, Kiper wrote recently:

"J.J. McCarthy has been one of the most difficult evaluations of this entire class. He has the tools to be in the mix for that No. 3 QB spot, but he just didn't convince me down the stretch. Where were the 'wow' throws? I didn't see him go through progressions much. Sure, he only had four interceptions, but three of those came against... Bowling Green? Plus, he wasn't asked to beat teams with his arm, partly because the Wolverines blew out all of their opponents until November." 

I'm in Kiper's corner on this one.

In his last four games — against Iowa, Ohio State, Maryland and Penn State — McCarthy attempted 30, 20, 23 and eight passes. In the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year's Day, count on Alabama — which has NFL-level talent all over the field — forcing McCarthy to pass. I don't think that will be pretty.

Here are my top three reasons why I don't see McCarthy becoming a successful starter in the NFL:

1. Funky throwing mechanics and weak arm

With an elongated throwing motion, McCarthy throws the football like a baseball pitcher striding toward the plate. It's not the delivery of an NFL-caliber QB. He must step into his throws to compensate for an arm that's not top-caliber. As Kiper notes, he's inconsistent going through his progressions. McCarthy also tends to lock in on his receivers, a huge no-no against NFL corners. 

2. Inconsistent ball placement 

Short, intermediate, deep — it doesn't matter — this dude is all over the place with his passes. Nothing kills drives more than an inaccurate passer. Worse yet, some of his passes are wobbly, making them tougher to catch. Ideally, QBs should throw a tight spiral. 

3. Lack of explosive plays produced 

McCarthy supporters boast of his high-level ball security, and it's true. In 2023, he had four interceptions, and I charted only 16 pass breakups in 13 games (1.23 avg.) this season. However, that's only because he throws a ton of short passes. In the FBS, McCarthy didn't even crack the top 50 in passing yardage this season (he ranked 51st with 2,630). 

McCarthy also appears to struggle reading defenses, but in college — against often-inferior competition — the deficiency doesn't stand out the way it will in the NFL. With its elementary passing route tree, Michigan didn't ask much of McCarthy as a passer. 

Bottom line 

McCarthy is a solid college QB, but he clearly lacks NFL upside. The scary part for me is that what he put on tape represents the best Harbaugh — who served as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers from 2011-14 — could do with him. That doesn't bode well for McCarthy at the next level. 

Nothing irks me more than over-grading. It often goes unsaid how much this hurts a prospect, creating unrealistic expectations that can sink an NFL career before it even has the chance to begin in earnest. At the next level, McCarthy has high bust potential. I'd recommend he stay in school another season, but even another season at Michigan might not lift him much higher on my draft board.