NCAAF Week 8: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide betting picks, preview

Last year, Tennessee really got our attention when they beat Alabama for the first time in a long time. That game was in Knoxville, and if they can do it for a second year in a row, and on the road, then maybe they have something there. Alabama has definitely looked very vulnerable this season but keeping it close and beating the Crimson Tide are very different things. 

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends and Odds

Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023 — 3:30 p.m., ET

Odds: Alabama -8.5, Over/under 48, Tennessee +260 | Alabama -325

Per the intro, Tennessee comes into this game with some confidence, having beaten Alabama a year ago. They are a very different team this season but this line is saying the markets expect a return to normalcy in the rivalry. This number might be accurate but it is also in the dead range, if you like Alabama, you basically need to like them to win by 10 points. 

Pick for Tennessee vs. Alabama

Tennessee +8.5

Tennessee has not received the attention this season that they did during their breakout season last year. That is because quarterback Joe Milton has been a disappointment and they have been forced to change the way they attack. This season, they are super balanced, they are actually sixth in the nation in rushing and I think that actually makes them more likely to be able to hang with Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are very good on defense but the Volunteers should be able to have some success on the ground and that helps shorten the game, which is to their benefit. Neither team is as explosive offensively as they were a year ago and this one might look more like a game from the 1990s than today. All that plays into Tennessee's hands. 

Since we are on the side of the Vols, the dead number is not that worrisome. I might even tease it up over 10 for more value with some other plays. I think this is going to be a game decided by a field goal.