NCAAF Week 7: USC Trojans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish betting picks, preview

Notre Dame punted itself from the college football playoffs hunt last week by losing to Louisville. They should be fired up this week though as it is probably the last meaningful game they have on the schedule this season. Meanwhile, USC is still in the playoff picture as long as they are undefeated. They have some bigger games coming up soon against the other Pac-12 powers, so they could be caught looking ahead.

USC Trojans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Trends and Odds

Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023 — 7:30 p.m., ET

Odds: Notre Dame -2.5, Over/under 60, USC +120 | Notre Dame -142

I am not sure why the Irish are favored in this game. I could see it if they had not lost last week, but that game was not even all that close and now here comes the best offense in the nation. Is playing at home worth that much for a team whose best win is against Duke? (sorry) I wonder if the market has assessed this one right from a power rating side. I think the books are going to get steamed on USC ML plays. 

Pick for USC vs Notre Dame

USC ML +120

The handicap on this one is simple, I just don't see how Notre Dame is going to keep up on offense against Heisman contender QB Caleb Williams and the Trojans. Sure, the USC defense has proven to be porous all season long, but they are able to create some big plays and thus far have been able to get enough stops to keep the Trojans winning (even if some games have been frighteningly close). That has been the formula so far and it will work again on Saturday night. You could take the points with the Trojans too but I see USC as a boom-or-bust team this season. There are no guarantees they win of course but I do not see this one as being close. They either win big or lose by enough to take the better payoff. 

At the current price, we could see a little movement but if that number gets to +3.5 all the action will come in on the USC side. They might already be trying to balance ML bets like the one I am suggesting.