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Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

NCAAF Top 25 futures: Tulane Green Wave poised to succeed in light AAC

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 7/1/23

Tulane set a record last season, going from 2-10 all the way to 12-2. Improving on a season like that is nearly impossible, but there is no expectation that the Green Wave is going to recede into the background. Especially not in a weakened American Athletic Conference — minus UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati.

The expectation was that emerging QB Michael Pratt might parlay last season's success into some big money with a power program. However, instead, he returns to help Tulane win another AAC title. It is not going to be easy as they need to replace their leading rusher, but there is more than enough for them to compete.

No. 25 Tulane Green Wave 2023 Win Total

Over 9.5 +110 / Under 9.5 -135

The posted number here is telling us that Tulane is a real threat in the AAC (and nationally) once again. UTSA is "moving up" to join the league, but the Green Wave is not going to just give it to them. Both of Tulane's losses last season were by a touchdown or less so it could have easily been an even more special season and one of those was against UCF who they "got" in the AAC title game (and is off the schedule). Even though that Over is considered less likely by the market, there are a lot of reasons Tulane is a team to be optimistic about.

As the Green Wave looks to have another strong season, the schedule is not too daunting. Tulane has only one game against a Power 5 opponent, and that is actually at home against Ole Miss, in the second week of the season. To be honest, I am not sure they won't be favored in that one even though the Rebels are from the big bad SEC. The other game that stands out as a possible loss is a tilt against UTSA and that is at home too. This schedule looks very manageable from start to finish including a bunch of games they are supposed to win. They do have to go to Southern Miss though, which is mostly notable because they lost at home to the Golden Eagles last year.

It is easy to see why the Green Wave won big last year. They had a balanced offense, stingy D, and did not turn the ball over much. Looking ahead they should be able to have at least two of those again with Pratt and most of the offensive line returning. Of defense, there are more question marks, but a softer schedule looks like enough for the Green Wave to have continued success. We might not have seen it coming last season but this season continues the build by head coach Willie Fritz. Tulane is poised to be among the best Group of Five teams again. Take the over and that positive payoff.

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