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Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord. Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

NCAAF Top 25 futures: Ohio State trying to close the gap on Big Blue

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 8/14/23

For the past two years, the Buckeyes have been good, but not good enough in the Big Ten. They have lost to Michigan in back-to-back seasons which stings, even if they did make the playoffs last year. They have still be winning a lot but the standard is very high in Columbus.

Now they head into a season with some uncertainty at the quarterback position. CJ Stroud was the second pick in the NFL draft last spring, and all of the wide receiver talent in the world is not very valuable if you can't get the ball in their hands. Ohio State is loaded but most think they are still looking up at the Wolverines.

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes 2023 Win Total

Over 10.5 -105 / Under 10.5 -115

These market numbers are telling us a couple of things. The first, and most obvious is that the Buckeyes should be very good once again. If you take out the COVID season they have won at least 11 games in each of the last 10 seasons — that is as good as anybody. The other is that the market is pretty evenly divided on whether they get all the way to that elite win total this season. They once again have one of the most talented rosters in the nation but there is some uncertainty there.

The Buckeyes start with a Big Ten road game but are fortunate it is against Indiana, who is not likely to put up much of a fight. However, Ohio State does have a couple of road tilts that are the reason the market is a little heavier on the under right now. The first is at Notre Dame in late September, and the other is at Michigan to close the regular season. To cash the over they can't lose both and even a trip to Wisconsin might be tougher than it has been the last few seasons with the Badgers under new leadership. That home date against Penn State is a spot where they better be on their toes too. They go to Madison after hosting PSU so that could be a letdown spot. Lots of opportunities to trip up this season.

Quarterback Kyle McCord is walking into a great situation in Columbus. Marvin Harrison Jr. is considered the top receiver in the nation and top running back Treyveon Henderson is NFL bound too. All he has to do is man the controls as well as Stroud to avoid the heat. It is not impossible, but you also have to think he might not be as sharp. If you are really high on Ohio State this season it might be because they should be stronger on defense than they have been the last few seasons. The defensive line especially is going to make it tough on opposing quarterbacks. They might not need as much from the offense this season.

This should be a very good Ohio State team, the talent is all there. I am taking the under because I am still looking for proof of concept for the new QB and there are enough top-quality opponents where that is going to matter. This market is pretty even so the pricing is not going to push me one way or the other. Take the under.

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