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NCAAF futures, UCF win totals: Can Knights conquer the Big 12?

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 6/27/23

This is the first season in the Big 12 for UCF and most agree that they are in the best position of the four new entrants into the league to succeed right away. That might be a low bar to hurdle though. With Gus Malzahn at the helm, they do have a coach who is used to competing at this level and who can help the Knights scheme to wins when they might not be as talented as the teams they are competing against.

UCF should fit right into the Big 12, a league where offense is where most teams lean. UCF is one of the most balanced offensive teams year over year and if they have things right at the quarterback position (John Rhys Plumlee is unproven) this season they will be a tough out.

2023 UCF Knights Win Total

Over 6.5 -155 / Under 6.5 +125

The sportsbooks seem to be quite certain that UCF is going to overperform in year 1. I do expect the Knights to compete well in the new league, but I think a transition like this is underrated, even if you have some talent and an experienced coach. The payoff on the under is very enticing, while the older is definitely not worth the associated risk with so many unknowns. I love the UCF story, but that is not going to make it any easier on the field. Their new brethren are going to be happy to keep them in their place.

The Knights have a couple of familiar foes on their league schedule with a trip to Cincinnati and their final game of the season against Houston. Their new conference slate is moderately difficult, but they do have to go to Kansas State, who won the league last year, and they have to go to Oklahoma too to take on former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The nonconference includes a trip to Boise State, and that is never a place you want to go unless you know you are really good, remnants of some old scheduling tactics, I imagine. At least the home schedule is full of winnable games. They are going to have to get them all to press that over.

Last year the Knights were ninth in the nation running the football and averaged more than 32 ppg. I think that is going to translate well to the Big 12, but it is different playing against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech instead of the likes of Temple and East Carolina (no offense). UCF is not going to be able to win games without putting in the effort and staying healthy. Even Kansas is on the come now that they finally have the right coach. The schedule is not brutal but they might not be favored in a road game this season. That makes it harder to assume they are going to win more than they lose. Take the under.

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