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Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

NCAAF futures, Auburn win totals: Can Tigers bring the heat under Freeze?

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 6/23/23

Auburn said "enough is enough" with head coach Bryan Harsin last season and dumped him midway through the year. Now Hugh Freeze is the new "savior" and at the very least he seems a little more suited to the region than Harsin ever was. Harsin got beat up because his recruiting was lackluster. Freeze, considered an excellent offensive coach, is hoping for a quick turnaround thanks to several transfers. (The traditional recruiting stuff will have to wait.)

That includes experienced quarterback Payton Thorne (formerly of Michigan State) among others. If the Tigers can get their offense turned around in Year 1 under Freeze that would be great, and there is a lot of room for improvement this season. The defense did not get the same makeover but it was not very good last season either. More experience returns on that side of the ball.

2023 Auburn Tigers Win Total

Over 6.5 -130 / Under 6.5 +105

The Tigers' outlook is interesting. We have seen a lot of recent examples where a new coach comes in, gets the quarterback right, and has some instant success. The markets are telling us we can expect more wins than we saw a year ago and it is not like Freeze is an unknown quantity. He has won everywhere he has coached and that includes time in the SEC at Ole Miss. He even had some success against Nick Saban way back when. It is not always as easy as it looks though and scrutiny will be intense.

The schedule is definitely going to help Freeze get off to a good start, even a trip to Cal should not be too much for this team in transition (3-0 is likely). After that, the slate stiffens big time. Other than a trip to Vanderbilt, the Tigers might not be favored in any of their SEC games this season. They do get to close the season by hosting Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but with Georgia also on the home schedule earlier in the season, the Tigers have very few gimme games.

The one thing the Tigers did well last year was run the ball. Look for Freeze to build on that and with Thorne at the controls they can be functional in the passing game. An improved offense should get them all of the wins they are supposed to get this season. Moving beyond and pulling off some upsets is tough to see. The defense is going to have to be significantly better than a year ago if they want to hang with the top teams in the SEC this season (which are littered across their schedule). I don't doubt that Freeze can elevate the program in time but the SEC is better than when he left it.

The under, and that better payoff is the bet I would make right now.

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