NCAAF bowls: UCF vs. Georgia Tech preview and pick

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl

UCF Knights vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
6:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Knights -4.5

I thought the Knights would fare better in their first season in the Big 12. Things could have been very different though as they had three losses by three points or less. A 9-3 record would have them playing later in the month but that is something we can capitalize on i this matchup. UCF is a very strong running team and that physicality usually translates well to bowl games where teams might be checked out. Also, that is Georgia Tech’s fatal flaw. They are one of the worst teams in the nation at defending the run. Once the Knights get things rolling downhill they should be able to get whatever they want. The Knights can be happy with some progress this season but it going to end on a down note.

More: UCF looks for yet another Gasparilla Bowl win vs. Ga. Tech

Here's how Yardbarker picked the earlier bowls:

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl 

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Ohio Bobcats
11 a.m. ET
Best Bet: Bobcats +3.5

This game flipped when Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke decided to enter the transfer portal (and possibly the NFL Draft). Even with that upheaval, I am leaning into the steady Bobcats. They have reserves at the position who got some game action throughout the year and the Bobcats defense gave up the fewest points in the MAC by a wide margin. Georgia Southern limped down the stretch losing their last three games of the year. They finished 6-6 and only got bowl-eligible thanks to a win over FCS The Citadel to start the year. Why not start bowl season with an outright upset? I can see it happening.

New Orleans Bowl

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
2:15 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Gamecocks -3

It has not been an especially strong year for the Sun Belt this season. It is not that there are not good teams like James Madison and Troy, but the middle and bottom feel light compared to recent seasons. ULL was just 2-4 in the second half of the year, meanwhile, JSU finished with 8 wins and only failed when they bumped up against the best on their schedule. You might not have noticed but they were even beating the other Gamecocks, South Carolina, in the second half before falling (they covered that one at least). This team is versatile, playing a couple of quarterbacks, and can be hard to prepare for. They can win a close one for sure. 

Cure Bowl

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Miami (Ohio) Redhawks
3:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Mountaineers -6.5

The markets are not giving much respect to Miami for winning the MAC this season. They are taking on the losers of the Sun Belt title game and are still close to a touchdown underdog. They did not do much in the nonconference this season though so it is hard to assess how good this team really is (or isn't). App State is much more tested and is one of those programs that is really good at sticking to its principles. They are also very physical and that is not a style Miami is used to or teams really want to seek in a bowl game. ASU is 6-1 in bowl games for their history. They lost their last one a couple of years ago, but when they have won under head coach Shawn Clark they have won big. I see that happening again.

New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
5:45 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Aggies -3.5

The Aggies have been one of the most profitable teams in the country this season and they certainly got everyone’s attention when they won at Auburn (who should have beaten Alabama, remember — "transitive excellence"). I know they are not elite but it is hard not to like them, especially against a Fresno State team that finished the season with back to back to back losses. The Bulldogs are usually scrappy in underdog roles but that is against the big boys where the motivation is nice and high. It is hard to see that being the case in this spot. NMSU Coach Jerry Kill will know how to make sure his Aggies do not get too caught up in their clippings. A balanced offense and a stingy defense will help. 

LA Bowl

Boise State Broncos vs. UCLA Bruins
7:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Under 49.5

The Broncos have already fired their head coach this season and both of these teams are losing quarterbacks to the transfer portal. The one constant on either team is the fact that UCLA can play defense, so even though I tend to not like bowl games to be gritty low low-scoring affairs, I do not see much scoring in this one. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly used to be a coach to fear if he had lots of time to prepare his offense, but he just doesn’t have much to work with this season. The Bruins have just two overs and 10 unders this season. They are favored which tells us that the most likely outcome is a game in the manner in which they like. They will run the ball and grind as much clock as possible. Also, the days of Boise State being an offensive innovator are long gone and they are breaking in a new starting quarterback to boot. Neither team will score more than 24 points in this one. 

Independence Bowl

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Cal Bears
9:15 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Red Raiders -2.5

Both of these teams finished 6-6. Both are in “power” conferences too where it is hard to gauge just how good they are because when they played the better teams they came up short and in general those games were not very close.  The Red Raiders played Oregon earlier in the season and lost by just eight points. That same Ducks team ripped through a lot of the Bears' schedule, but I do not want to put too much stock into a game from the second week of the season. The game merely showed me that the Red Raiders likely have the higher ceiling among the two programs. Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks had an off-the-radar great season this year. Being able to score points and keep things simple can lead the Red Raiders to a bowl win as a small favorite.

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Old Dominion Monarchs
2:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Hilltoppers +2.5

These teams feel pretty even and when it comes to bowl season it is OK to admit you are not an expert on either squad. I do know that the Western Kentucky passing game can be pretty darn good and I am willing to back that, especially in an underdog role. The Hilltoppers are well accustomed to throwing the ball so even if they get behind they have the tools to come back against Old Dominion. The Monarchs were all over the map this season. They hung with the better teams in the Sun Belt and even beat Appalachian State. However, some of their losses were puzzling. As a favorite this season they were just 1-1 SU and did not cover once. The Hilltoppers can push this game to the final possession and give us a great chance to win outright.

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl

Marshall Thundering Herd vs UTSA Roadrunners
9 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Thundering Herd +12.5

UTSA was supposed to have a great first season in the AAC. They finished 7-1 in the league but their struggles in the nonconference took some luster off of a good season. As did the fact that they did not dominate the league like undefeated Tulane or SMU. They deserve to be favorites against 6-6 Thundering Herd but that is a lot of points to cover against a team that you are not decidedly better than on a player-for-player basis. Marshall hung with NC State and beat Virginia Tech this season so even if they are they can game plan to keep things close. Neither of those teams were double-digit favorites either. RB Rasheen Ali gives Marshall an effective ground game to lean on and shorten up the game.

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl

South Florida Bulls vs. Syracuse Orange
8 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Bulls +3

The Bulls showed progress this season, earning a bowl bid for the first time since the Charlie Strong era. They do not play any defense, but when you can score 30 points you can be in the ballgame. I like their chances in this spot against Syracuse, a team that has turfed head coach Dino Babers. I always prefer to be on the side of continuity. It might not always be sexy but in college football, it can mean everything. Especially at this time of year of firings and transfer portal departures. The Orange’s overall numbers for the season are inflated on both sides by a 65-0 win over FCS Colgate to start the year. In five of their losses, they failed to score more than 14 points and I do not want to have to rely on them to get their offense in gear to win and cover even against a porous defense.

More: Syracuse runs into USF, Boca Raton Bowl thinking ground game