NCAAF News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams. Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Heisman Trophy futures: Can USC's Caleb Williams repeat?

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 8/21/23

Last year USC quarterback Caleb Williams took the Heisman Trophy. I would not call it a surprise, but given he had less than a full season of experience, and was transferring from Oklahoma to USC, it was not exactly the most obvious choice, even though the talent was there.

Now he enters 2023 as the favorite and other than the fact that it is very difficult to win this award twice, it is easy to see why he is in that position at the top of the odds table. That is because he meets all of the classic criteria. Quarterback, check. Likely to post impressive stats, check. Nationally relevant program, check.

2023 Heisman Trophy Odds

Caleb Williams, Quarterback, USC Trojans +550

The Case For

Williams has already proven he can put up fantastic numbers in coach Lincoln Riley's offensive system. It feels very plug-and-play too, so losing Jordan Addison to he NFL should not have a major impact. Not only is Williams super productive, but he has a propensity for making exciting plays too because he has great athleticism. He can run the ball as well so he is likely to have some moments where he getting into the end zone himself, in addition to his teammates.

At a team level, this looks like the best USC team in quite some time. They have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time and that will help answer the question of why this season is better than last year's, a question they are going to be asking all season long as they consider his candidacy.

The Case Against

A player winning the Heisman a second time has not happened in more than a generation. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young could not do it last year, even though he wound up being the top pick in the NFL Draft last spring. It is hard to do because this subjective award is all about the "new thing" and you quickly get compared to how good you were in the past. Last year Williams threw for over 4,500 yards and accounted for 52 total touchdowns. Those are tough numbers to top.

While USC is a contender, it remains to be seen just how good this team is going to be. If Williams only repeats his brilliance of last season, he is going to need help from his team in terms of being in the playoff hunt all season long, something that has eluded them. There are multiple top 20 teams in the PAC 12 this season and he needs to keep USC to be on top.

Value Rating: Medium

This is a season-long play so at least you are getting a decent payoff for your money being tied up for so long at +550. This number is going to probably hold steady unless there is an injury for the first 5-6 weeks until the Trojans first marquee game against Notre Dame. That is when we will have a better understanding of where USC and Williams have a chance to have a moment.

This is a nice benchmark play.

More must-reads: