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The 2024 NFL draft is on our doorstep and the folks at ESPN Analytics have released a new tool to predict the chances that prospects are both available and selected at a given pick in the draft.
Here's ESPN's explanation of the analytics behind the draft day predictor tool.
“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”
So who do the Chiefs end up with at pick No. 32 based on this tool?
With the 32nd pick in the 2024 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
With over a 7% chance, Texas WR Adonai Mitchell is the likeliest player to be selected by the Chiefs if he's available at pick No. 32. He's followed by Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (over 6%) and fellow Texas WR Xavier Worthy (also over 6%). This shouldn't come as a major surprise given that wide receiver is considered one of the biggest needs for Kansas City.
What is a bit surprising is that some of the tackles on this chart aren't considered more favorably at pick No. 32.
As far as availability is concerned, there are quite a few players who are expected to be available with a much greater likelihood than Mitchell. Texas A&M LB Edgerrin Cooper, Rutgers CB Max Melton, and FSU WR Keon Coleman all have over a 90% chance to be available at pick No. 32 per ESPN Analytics.
As for Mitchell, he has a greater than 50% chance of being available at pick No. 32. What's interesting is that South Carolina WR Xavier Legette (over 80%) and Georgia WR Ladd McConkey (over 60%) both have higher chances of being available at the pick, yet they're not as likely to be the pick if each of Mitchell, McConkey, and Legette were available.
What's the latest on Texas WR Adonai Mitchell?
This is a unique prediction because there has been a lot of hubbub surrounding Mitchell's draft stock over the past two days. Anonymous NFL scouts raised serious health and maturity concerns to Go Long TD's Bob McGinn in his annual draft series. Mitchell is a Type-1 diabetic and there seem to be concerns over his ability to manage the disease and how his blood sugar impacts his attitude.
Interestingly, the Chiefs are one of the few NFL teams uniquely suited for managing this situation with an NFL draft pick. Noah Gray, a former fifth-round pick by K.C. in the 2021 NFL draft, discovered he was a Type-1 Diabetic when he was a freshman at Duke. Since he's been in the NFL, the Chiefs have helped him manage his diabetes with a continuous glucose monitor and an insulin pump that assures his blood sugar never gets too high or too low.
This experience could certainly give the decision-makers in Kansas City a greater level of confidence in selecting a player like Mitchell.
More must-reads:
- LSU HC pins transfer portal struggles on reluctance to 'buy players'
- Jalen Milroe isn't the only impressive Alabama QB heading into 2024
- The 'Yearly NBA playoff leaders in PPG' quiz
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