College football pick-six: Michigan built its own prison, UCF is getting shafted again, and old coaches are all the rage

Cliched storyline of the week

I was somewhere around the fourth round of leftovers when the realization took hold: Michigan was going to lose to Ohio State. And the Wolverines were not just going to lose; they were going to go down in historically embarrassing fashion in what now stands as the starkest loss of Jim Harbaugh’s entire career — and yes, I am including that loss in the Super Bowl to his own brother. Losing to Ohio State in the way that Harbaugh did — as a team lugging pretty much every ounce of momentum and all conceivable competitive edges into this game — exposed pretty much every flaw in his increasingly archaic coaching philosophy.

I worried in this space last week that Michigan’s wear-you-down strategy, even if it succeeded against Ohio State, would not work in a Playoff game against teams of the caliber of Clemson and Alabama. But Harbaugh did not even make it that far, he’s now 0-4 against Ohio State, and Michigan is now trapped in a prison of its own making. There is no one Michigan could hire who would be a better draw than Harbaugh; its only option is seemingly for Harbaugh to overhaul the program, embrace a more modern offensive philosophy and then wait for Urban Meyer to retire.

Either that or encourage Harbaugh to jump back into the NFL and start all over again, which, at this point, might wind up being the best option for both parties.

Impending Playoff watch of the week

Tier 1: Alabama. I’d like to tell you that the SEC Championship Game against Georgia stands between Alabama and the College Football Playoff, yet even a close loss to the Bulldogs might be good enough to get the Crimson Tide in. But honestly, do you see a loss happening? Because if so, I would like to sample some of the tryptophan you consumed this weekend.

Tier 2: Clemson. A 21-point win over archrival South Carolina, and now an ACC “Championship Game” (quotes mine) against Pitt is the only thing standing between the Playoff’s other foregone conclusion: achieving what we all expected the Tigers to in the first place. Weird when that happens, because it almost never does in college football. But it probably will happen this weekend...unless Dan Marino has kept his arm in cold storage and has a week of eligibility remaining.

Tier 3: Notre Dame, Georgia, UCF. 

A.) I’ll repeat what I’ve said previously: This is not the same Notre Dame team that got embarrassed by Alabama in 2012. In a way, this is the best hope for Michigan — that Harbaugh can somehow amp up a seemingly moribund program the way Brian Kelly did. Then again, it also wouldn’t surprise me if this were the end of Kelly’s run at Notre Dame, because I don’t see the Irish getting past those top two teams, and he’s already the longest-tenured Notre Dame coach since Lou Holtz. 

B.)  I imagine Georgia will tumble from this tier next Saturday (see above). 

C.)  Here’s how idiotic college football is: UCF loses its best player, quarterback McKenzie Milton, to a horrific knee injury. This, like UCF’s schedule and conference affiliation, is the one thing that is entirely out of its players’ control. UCF then beats down South Florida, 38-10, behind backup quarterback Darriel Mack. But the consensus is that UCF is now out of the Playoff no matter what it does in this weekend’s AAC Championship against Memphis, due to Milton's injury — which seems like a solid message to send. Maybe next year we can just hire Gregg Williams to coach against Alabama every week.

Tier 4: Ohio State, Oklahoma. It’s clear by now that both of these teams are deeply flawed, and in a just world this would be the perfect year to at least give UCF a chance to play the sacrificial lamb against Alabama in the Playoff. But that’s not how a cabal works, so one of those teams will be rewarded. And I’d rather it be Oklahoma because Kyler Murray is one of the most fantastic quarterbacks I’ve seen in recent years. And if he’s going to abandon us for baseball, let’s at least maximize our joy.

The John Denver’s Shirt dude of the week

Sure, West Virginia wound up losing its final two games of the regular season, but it wasn’t Will Grier’s fault. The dude threw for a total of 903 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, and his team put up 97 points in those two defeats. I realize that there’s going to be the usual NFL scout angst over Grier heading into the spring. But maybe, in what’s already being cast as a down year for franchise quarterbacks, Grier might be worth taking a chance on. (Saquon Barkley isn’t going to stay this fresh forever, Giants.)

The week in WTF

Hello, second-tier Power Five conference program. Are you seeking a way to enhance your media presence while grasping desperately for some past glory that probably won’t materialize again in the future? Allow me to introduce you to Les Miles at Kansas and Mack Brown at North Carolina, both of whom are best known for stumbling into national championships in past lives and are now 65 and 67 years old, respectively.

With Bill Snyder at Kansas State is still clinging to his job, the average age of college football coaches in the Auntie Em state is at roughly 73. That's six years younger than "The Wizard of Oz" movie itself.

Off-topic recommendations of the week

Given the Texas-Oklahoma rematch in the Big 12 Championship game in Jerry Jones’ Dallas-based paean to American excess (and given the geriatric tinge of the above blurb), this might be a good time to watch/rewatch "Logan’s Run," the best movie ever made about the ritual sacrifice of 30-year-olds that happened to be filmed largely in Dallas, a city where life over 30 is, um, robust.

Your weekly dose of historical context

Say this Georgia pass against Alabama in the 2013 SEC Championship Game falls incomplete, rather than being inadvertently caught by receiver Chris Conley: