Aaron Rodgers Not the Betting Favorite for MVP; Jared Goff a Long Shot

Former Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers has won the NFL MVP award the past two seasons, but he is not the betting favorite to win it a third consecutive year. His odds on most betting sites place him as only the No. 4 favorite.

And if you are looking for a huge long-shot bet take another former Golden Bears quarterback, Jared Goff, who would pay anywhere from 1,000 to $2,000 on a $10 bet, depending on the site, if he should win the MVP.

You could probably get even longer odds on former Cal wide receiver Keenan Allen. A $10 bet on Allen would fetch a $2,000 return, perhaps more, if he should somehow win the MVP in 2022.

Allen and Mahomes, who were the losers in "The Match" charity golf event and have a combined age of 52 years, are generally the co-favorites to win the MVP across most betting sites, while Rodgers and Brady, the winners of "The Match" who will have a combined age of 84 years when the 2022 season is over, are generally the third and fourth favorites.

Later we will provide some experts' assessments on whether Rodgers is a smart bet, but first we will look at the NFL MVP odds from Vegas Insider.

He are the top 15 favorites according to Vegas Insider.

Josh Allen -- +700 (or 7-to-1)

Patrick Mahomes -- +800 (or 8-to-1)

Aaron Rodgers -- +900 (or 9-to-1)

Tom Brady -- +900 (or 9-to-1)

Justin Herbert -- +1100

Joe Burrow -- +1300

Dak Prescott -- +1400

Matthew Stafford -- +1500

Russell Wilson -- +1500

Kyler Murray -- +1800

Lamar Jackson -- +2200

Deshaun Watson -- +2500

Jalen Hurts -- +2500

Derrick Henry -- +3300

Derek Carr -- +3300

Other former Cal players:

Jared Goff -- +10000 (or 100-to-1)

Keenan Allen -- +20000 (or 200-to-1)

Notes: Goff has longer odds than 24 other quarterbacks, and his odds are longer than those for Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence and Davis Mills, among many others. Perhaps we forget that Goff was among the leading contenders for the MVP midway through the 2018 season.

Draft Kings odds are a little different in that it has Tom Brady as the second favorite and Rodgers tied for fourth with Justin Herbert. Here is the Draft Kings top 10 favorites for the MVP, as provided by covers.com:

Josh Allen -- +700

Tom Brady -- +800

Patrick Mahomes -- +900

Aaron Rodgers -- +1000

Justin Herbert -- +1000

Joe Burrow -- +1200

Russell Wilson -- +1400

Matthew Stafford -- +1500

Dak Prescott -- +1600

Jalen Hurts -- +1800

If you want to be on Rodgers, BetOnline,ag seems to have the best odds for him, ranking only as the No. 5 favorite at 14-to-1 (or +1400), behind Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, among others. Here are the BetOnline.ag odds to win the NFL MVP:

Josh Allen -- 5-to-1

Justin Herbert -- 11-to-2 (or 6.5-to-1)

Patrick Mahomes -- 9-to-1

Joe Burrow -- 11-to-1

Aaron Rodgers -- 14-to-1

Tom Brady -- 14-to-1

Jalen Hurts -- 18-to-1

Russell Wilson -- 18-to-1

Derek Carr -- 20-to-1

Matthew Stafford -- 20-to-1

Jared Goff's odds at other betting sites (provided by 4for4.com):

Fan Duel -- +15000 (or 150-to-1)

Draft King -- +20000 (or 200-to-1)

BetMGM -- +20000

Ceasars Sportsbook -- +20000

Points Bet -- +20000

Does Fan Duel know something about Goff that the other sites don't?

In a May 22, 2022 story sharpfootballanallisis.com provided an interesting observation. While the MVP betting odds provided by BetMGM have stayed relatively consistent for nearly all the players the past few months, Rodgers' odds went from co-favorite status at +700 after the draft to +900 -- or fourth favorite -- when the schedules were released in May.

Why that happened is unclear. Certainly the departure of Davante Adams made Rodgers' odds of winning the MVP a little longer, but that trade was made in mid-March, well before the draft.

Here is what several sites said about Rodgers' odds of winning MVP for a fifth time in 2022.

The Sporting News (Vinnie Iyer)

"Aaron Rodgers has had a firm grip on NFL MVP the past two seasons, but that is bound to change in 2022. Although the Packers did see Brett Favre win a third straight MVP at 25 years ago, there's too much competition to think Rodgers can be the first quarterback since to do that.

"Rodgers is still among the MVP favorites for the upcoming season, but 2018 winner Patrick Mahomes and two more young guns are right up looking for their first one: Josh Allen and Justin Herbert."

Cover.com (Chris Gregory)

"All the drama surrounding Rodgers is over as the veteran quarterback agreed to an extremely lucrative four-year deal to return to Green Bay in the offseason. He's one of the favorites to win the regular-season MVP award once more. If successful, Rodgers would match Peyton Manning as the only two players to ever earn the honors in five different seasons.

"Age has not been a factor for the 38-year-old Rodgers either. He overcame a toe injury to throw 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions on 4,115 yards passing over 16 games, leading the Packers to a 13-3 record — Green Bay lost the lone game he missed.

"It will be interesting to see how the four-time MVP performs this upcoming season with the loss of star receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders."

Sportsnaut.com (Andrew Buller-Russ)

"Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: A rough start following an offseason of drama disappeared quickly, culminating in yet another MVP award for the 10x Pro Bowl QB. We’ll see how AR12’s 2022 team plays, but they won’t have Davante Adams."

Sports Betting Dime (on March 23)

"Even with Aaron Rodgers’ future with the Packers being very uncertain entering March, sportsbooks obviously didn’t feel a change of scenery, or another birthday, for the back-to-back NFL MVP would be detrimental at all. Rodgers still opened as a top three contender to win the 2022 NFL MVP award based on the opening odds. His odds did not change much after he announced he would be returning to the Packers. They have faded a little since Green Bay traded away Davante Adams, though."